Why Putin invaded Ukraine and why it matters for Americans
Too many of our media pundits would have us believe that Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is somehow our fault. If we had just accepted Russia’s “rightful” dominance of its neighbors, if we hadn’t treated Russians so badly a er the end of the Cold War, if we had just been tougher — or, wait, maybe not so tough. The list of apologies for Putin is endless. And it is (mostly) nonsense.
I had the honor of working on our exchange programs at the U.S. embassy in Moscow from 2003 to 2006, serving under President George W. Bush. At the time, the U.S. was sending thousands of Russians a year to the U.S. to see rsthand a democratic and free market society in action. And as they returned home, they reinforced thousands more Russians eager to transform their country. Could we have done more to help the democratizers? Certainly. Putin, however, saw democracy and the rule of law as a threat to his unlimited power.
And he quashed it.
So let’s be clear: It is not “Russia” attacking Ukraine, it is Putin. Ordinary Russians had no say in the decision. What then does Putin want?
Those who follow him closely say that this is really about his place in history. Russian history, speci cally. There are two historical gures that vastly expanded Russia’s territorial dominance — Peter the Great and Joseph Stalin. Imagine Putin’s legacy if he could be the third — by restoring Russia’s domination of eastern Europe? That would indeed be an achievement — for Russian history books. Subjugating Ukraine, however, is just one step to that end. A erward, there would be Georgia, Moldova and the Baltic States — and, with a little luck, forcing most of Eastern Europe to turn away from the
West and once again obey Moscow.
So, why should Americans care? For one, the incredible bravery of the Ukrainian people is impossible to ignore. Against incredible odds, they are ghting for freedom. How can Americans not support that?
Longer term, however, we need to understand that America itself will also be Putin’s target. That is because the greatest risk to his ambition is the Biden administration’s remarkable success in rebuilding western unity. Increasingly harsh economic sanctions will slowly but surely debilitate the Russian economy. And NATO’s new sense of purpose will stand in the way of further Russian territorial expansion. Indeed, if the west stays uni ed, not only will Putin’s expansionist ambitions likely fail, but Putin’s position inside Russia itself could be in peril.
For Putin and his cronies, therefore, driving a wedge between western countries is critical. And what better way to destroy western resolve than to weaken its leading country? He knows that without American leadership, that unity will dissolve, sanctions will slip away, and NATO will be hard-pressed to defend its Baltic members. Russia’s return to great power status would be complete, thanks to Putin.
What does that mean for Americans? That we should expect the mother of all disinformation campaigns over the next several years. Our divided and angry politics make us such a tempting target! Moreover, in Donald Trump, the U.S. has a likely presidential candidate who has repeatedly expressed both his admiration for Putin and his distaste for Europe, NATO and democracy in general. With Trump back in the White House — possibly supported by a Republican party completely transformed by Trumpism — Putin’s ambitions would have clear sailing.
In fact, despite the early problems facing his invasion forces in Ukraine, Putin must right now be feeling pretty good about his prospects. His disinformation machine has been honed by years of practice, not only in the U.S. but in countries all over the world. It is sophisticated, wellnanced and, paired with equallysophisticated cy ber attack weapons, knows no legal boundaries. And in America, it will be working in parallel with the likes of Tucker Carlson, whose cheerleading for Putin is so complete that Russia’ s governmentmanaged television is rebroadcasting his show at home.
It is a match made in heaven. And Putin can pour unlimited amounts of money into it: no matter how much it costs, it will be cheap compared to the expense and uncertainty of military operations. So, Americans, get ready. The struggle to decide our political future will likely not be ours alone. Putin has too much at stake not to do everything he can to weaken us from the inside.