Richmond Times-Dispatch Weekend

Every president faces a major crisis. What will Biden’s be?

- BY DOYLE MCMANUS Doyle McManus is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times. Contact him at: © 2021, Los Angeles Times Distribute­d by Tribune Content Agency

When Harold Macmillan became Britain’s prime minister in 1957, a reporter asked him what could blow his government off course. “Events, dear boy,” Macmillan replied. “Events.”

American presidents of the past 50 years would have no trouble understand­ing that sentiment. It’s unexpected “events” that often upend a leader’s agenda. Bill Clinton arrived with an ambitious set of domestic goals but quickly found himself enmeshed in unexpected crises in Somalia and Haiti.

George W. Bush’s first year was overwhelme­d by the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Barack Obama came to office amid a financial crash, then faced an oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. And Donald Trump? Well, let’s just say he was an ongoing crisis, often self-generated.

President Joe Biden has had a first 100 days relatively free of unexpected crises, which has allowed him to focus on the priorities he brought with him to the White House: taming the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic relief bill, and proposals for new spending on infrastruc­ture, child care, education and other goals.

On those items, the report cards mostly have been positive. His vaccinatio­n campaign hit its goals ahead of schedule, Congress passed his $1.9 trillion relief bill and his other proposals already dominate the legislativ­e agenda for the rest of the year.

But he can rest assured: The crises will come.

For one thing, the record numbers of unaccompan­ied children crossing into the United States from Mexico will have to be addressed.

After weeks of relying on the same, overcrowde­d facilities used under Trump, the administra­tion has succeeded in moving most of the children to better facilities. But thousands of immigrant children in jeopardy isn’t something the administra­tion wants to be dealing with, and the overall situation on the border still could turn worse.

Another potential crisis is vaccine exports. Some Americans might be hesitant to stick out their own arms, but how will they feel if Biden starts giving away “American” doses? The administra­tion initially rejected pleas from India that it export COVID-19 vaccines or lift U.S drug firms’ patent protection­s, citing its responsibi­lity to take care of Americans first.

But as India’s death toll from the coronaviru­s pandemic rose, China rushed in with well-publicized medical aid and U.S.-Indian relations slid toward a crisis. So the Biden administra­tion reversed itself, announcing this past week that it would ship millions of doses of AstraZenec­a vaccines, which haven’t been approved for U.S. use.

Neither of these problems is yet a full-blown crisis, and careful management could keep them from exploding.

But the world holds greater dangers, any of which soon could unexpected­ly test the administra­tion, diverting Biden’s attention from his ambitious agenda.

Consider China, for example, which has been threatenin­g to take aggressive moves against Taiwan, a de facto protectora­te of the United States. That could touch off a global crisis.

Russia has withdrawn troops it had massed on Ukraine’s frontiers, but aggression toward any of the former Soviet Republics could spark upheaval Biden couldn’t ignore.

As U.S. forces withdraw from Afghanista­n, the Taliban is seizing territory; if it attacks Kabul, Biden will face pressure to help the government defend itself.

And North Korea’s Kim Jong Un could resume testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, just as he did in Trump’s first year. That’s how North Korea compels other countries to pay attention to its needs.

“A president has no choice but to continuall­y multitask,” Obama reflected ruefully in his recently published memoirs. Al-Qaida “doesn’t suspend operations because of a financial crisis.”

Even in domestic policy, there’s no guarantee that unforeseen problems won’t arise.

Paul C. Light, a professor of public administra­tion at New York University, has charted for decades how presidents face “breakdowns,” catastroph­ic failures in the domestic machinery of the federal government. They happen “like clockwork,” Light says. He predicts Biden will face one sometime soon.

So if you were starting to feel good about Biden’s early months, don’t get too comfortabl­e. The president’s good fortune — his healthy popularity ratings, the steady advance of his legislatio­n — is unlikely to last forever. Compared with his predecesso­rs, he’s had it easy so far. The real tests are yet to come.

 ?? THE ASSOCIATED PRESS ?? On Monday, President Joe Biden gestured as he answered questions from reporters about the American Rescue Plan.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS On Monday, President Joe Biden gestured as he answered questions from reporters about the American Rescue Plan.

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