e Chimeric Dream to Forecast Volcanic Eruptions
It has been a dream to accurately forecast a violent volcanic eruption long in advance. To some, it’s a chimeric dream that will never produce concrete results. Or is it?
Writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, a team led by Federico Galetto (Cornell University) believes they have been able to spot long-term tell-tale signs of pending eruptions in at least one set of basaltic calderas, such as those commonly found in Iceland. eir method uses satellite monitoring of surface deformation around a volcanic caldera.
at’s not new. Surface deformation has long been used in forecasting pending eruptions. What’s new is their “viscoelastic model” which further estimates underground magma inow rates. ey found a specific “critical overpressure” transition point above which eruptions always occur within a year and below which there is rarely an eruption. eir new method of forecasting could provide weeks to months advance notice of an eruption. So while the overall dream may remain elusive, at least for one set of volcanoes, our ability to provide a long-term forecast has been enhanced.