Biden’s next 2 years: changes afoot whatever midterms bring
Joe Biden’s record is on the ballot even if his name isn’t. And no matter what Tuesday’s midterm elections bring, his presidency is set for profound changes.
In public, Biden professed optimism to the end, telling Democratic state party officials on election eve that “we’re going to surprise the living devil out of people.” In private, though, White House aides have been drawing up contingencies should Republicans take control of one, or both, chambers of Congress — a scenario Biden said would make his life “more difficult.”
Regardless of the outcome, the votes will help reshape the balance of Biden’s term after an ambitious first two years and will reorder his White House priorities.
The president, who spent the day making get-out-thevote calls to radio outlets targeted to Black voters and thanking Democratic campaign staffers, was to spending election night at the White House watching returns with advisers. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden would address the nation on Wednesday about the
results, which are sure to be incomplete at that point.
The president last week appealed for Americans to be “patient” as votes are counted and to avoid engaging in conspiracy theories, a message he was likely to repeat Wednesday about pending returns.
Biden, in his first two years, pushed through sweeping bills to address the coronavirus pandemic, rebuild the nation’s infrastructure, address climate change and boost the nation’s
competitiveness over China — all with the slimmest of congressional majorities. Now, aides and allies say, his focus will turn to preserving those gains, implementing the massive pieces of legislation — perhaps while under intense GOP oversight — sustaining effective governance in an even more charged environment and shoring up his party’s standing ahead of the next presidential election.
Biden’s job approval has
rebounded from lows this summer, but he remains less than popular with midterm voters. About 6 in 10 disapprove of how he is handling his role as president, according to AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of over 90,000 voters nationally. About 4 in 10 approve.
Should Republicans win control of Congress, Biden allies are gearing up for fights on keeping the government funded and its financial obligations met, sustaining support for Ukraine and protecting his signature legislative achievements from repeal efforts. Republican wins could also usher in a host of GOP candidates whom Biden has branded as threats to democracy for refusing to acknowledge the results of the 2020 presidential race, limiting potential avenues of cooperation and exposing new challenges ahead of 2024.
The Biden administration has been preparing for months for an expected flood of GOP investigations should Republicans take over one or both chambers, devising legal and media strategies to address probes into everything from the chaotic U.S. military pullout from Afghanistan to presidential son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.
If the Republicans take power, Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer said, history shows it would be “very effective” for Biden to “focus on their extremism, and to turn their new power against them.”
White House aides and allies have been closely monitoring the clamoring on the right to investigate or even impeach Biden. While they have pledged to cooperate on what they see as legitimate oversight, they are eager to exact a political toll on Republicans should they overreach, casting the GOP as focused on investigations instead of the issues most important to Americans’ lives.
The potential shift comes as Biden, at 79, has repeated his intention to run for reelection. He will need to make a final decision soon, perhaps teeing up a rematch against former President Donald Trump, who has teased his own expected announcement for Nov. 15.
A bad midterm outcome doesn’t preclude a president’s reelection — historically incumbents are strongly favored to win another term. But Zelizer said that even presidents who manage to defy history and avoid major losses or hold their majorities are forced to change course for the balance of their terms.
“What effective presidents do, is they make defending what they’ve already done a priority,” he said. “And then come election time, your record, even if it hasn’t grown since the midterms, it looks good. What you don’t want is it to be dismantled, not to be able to implement it, and then your opponent in 2024 is going to say, ‘Look, what he did was just terribly ineffective and didn’t work.’”