As Putin orchestrates his reelection, a resilient Russian economy is a key selling point
>> Russians are finding a few imported staples, like fruit, coffee and olive oil, have shot way up in price. Most global brands have disappeared — or been reincarnated as Russian equivalents under new, Kremlin-friendly ownership. A lot more Chinese cars are zipping around the streets. Those who want a particular luxury cosmetic may be out of luck.
Other than that, not much has changed economically for most people in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, more than two years after he sent troops into Ukraine.
That’s despite the sweeping sanctions that have cut off much of Russia’s trade with Europe, the U.S. and their allies.
That sense of stability is a key asset for Putin as he orchestrates his foreordained victory in the March 15-17 presidential election for a fifth, six-year term.
Inflation is higher than most people would like, at over 7% — above the central bank’s goal of 4%. But unemployment is low, and the economy is expected to grow 2.6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, double the previous forecast. That’s far above the 0.9% expansion predicted for Europe.
“There are difficulties, of course — they’re connected with the general situation in the world,” said Andrei Fedotov, 55, who was walking down the Tverskaya Street central shopping avenue a few blocks from the Kremlin. “We know this very well, but I believe we’ll overcome them.”
Higher prices “bother me, of course — like any consumer, I see them going up,” said Fedotov, who works in education. “It’s connected to the times that we’re in, and which will pass.”
Brand manager Irina Novikova, 39, was upbeat despite higher prices in stores: “More domestic products have appeared, more agricultural products. Yes, we all see that some goods have disappeared.”
“Prices have gone up — if I used to buy three items for a certain price, now I buy one,” she said, but added, “Go look for Russian products, the shops with Russian goods.”
“Industry may have suffered, we know there have been some setbacks in that regard, but again, we’re adjusting and we’re reorienting our thinking, and we’re starting to look to our Chinese friends,” Novikova said.
Massive Russian spending for military equipment and hefty payments to volunteer soldiers are giving a strong boost to the economy. Government-subsidized mortgages are supporting apartment buyers in a powerful kick to the booming construction sector, as evidenced by several mammoth high-rise developments going up on the banks of the Moscow River.
Inflation rankles, but it’s also nothing new. Russia became more self-sufficient in producing its own food after 2014, when it took over Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula and the resulting Western sanctions led the government to ban a broad range of food imports from Europe.
Planned government spending this year is roughly twice what it was in 2018. Yet the deficit remains manageable as taxes and oil revenue keep flowing in.
So-called parallel imports via third countries such as Georgia, Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan have allowed Russians with money to keep buying Western products — from sneakers to mobile phones and cars — from companies that no longer do business in Russia, usually for a significant markup.
A BMW SUV is still easily available, though at twice the price in Germany. IKEA shut its 17 Russian stores, but its furniture and home goods can be bought online — for a price.
Apple left, but an iPhone 15 Pro Max with 512 gigabytes sells for the ruble equivalent of $1,950 on Russia’s Wildberries retail site, about what the phone sells for in Germany.
Not that there aren’t strains on the economy. Companies face labor shortages after hundreds of thousands of men left the country after the start of the fighting in Ukraine to avoid mobilization, and hundreds of thousands of others signed military contracts.