Recent attacks may carry ballot risk for GOP

Polls show public support for tighter guns laws is rising.

Alone, that doesn’t mean Congress is going to expand gun control anytime soon.

Public opinion and public policy on guns have been at odds for decades. Measures like universal background checks often attract the support of more than 90 percent of the public, but that backing hasn’t translated into overwhelming victories for gun control measures when they’ve been put to public votes.

And in general, Republicans, many in safe rural districts or states, are relatively insulated from national opinion on gun control and on other issues that break along urban-rural lines.

But in the aftermath of the mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton, Ohio, President Donald Trump has expressed support for gun control measures that he previously rejected. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, has signaled openness to a vote on gun legislation, including possibly a background check bill.

Advocates for restrictive gun laws have seized on strong public support as an explanation for this change of heart.

The mass shootings probably are a factor in the shift in the polls. Polling from Civiqs, an online public opinion firm, shows support for new gun control laws tends to increase immediately after a high-profile shooting. The shift tends to subside in the weeks that follow, but generally leaves support for gun control laws higher than where it started.

More traditional polls also have shown increasing support for gun restrictions. Surveys from Gallup, Pew, Quinnipiac, ABC and NBC all show a modest recent rise in the share of Americans who say they believe controlling gun violence is more important than protecting gun rights or who say they favor more strict gun laws.

These more broadly worded polling questions show a public that is much more closely divided than on questions about specific policies, such as expanding background checks or limiting gun sales to people suspected of being terrorists. Pollsters say the broader questions tend to be better predictors of true public sentiment.

The president himself could be another factor.

Historically, public opinion on guns — and other issues — tends to shift against the preferences of the party in power. Public support for gun control laws slipped when Barack Obama became president and has tended to increase since his exit from office.

But even in the Trump years, public support for new gun laws generally has remained beneath the levels of the George W. Bush years or the 1990s, when Congress passed an assault weapons ban.

Polls in coming weeks may show support for new gun laws reaching even higher levels, as they did after the high school shootings in Parkland, Fla.; for now, public opinion looks more the way it did during the Obama years, when gun legislation stalled.

Trump’s support for gun laws may be a larger factor than the small shifts in public support.

There are factors beyond the top line of public opinion polls that could give gun control advocates hope that this time might be different.

The most recent attacks pose new political risks to Republicans.

The president’s anti-immigrant rhetoric has been decried as a contributing factor to the violence, which may give Republicans new reason to take action. And gun control activists argue some recent shootings could have been prevented by “red flag” laws, which allow courts to temporarily confiscate firearms from people who are found to be at risk of committing violence.

McConnell has signaled support for a vote on a federal red flag law, and several Republican senators have said they would vote for one.