San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Lamb should help Elliott as much as Prescott
DALLAS — At first glance, it seems counterintuitive of the Cowboys.
Foolish even.
They made Ezekiel Elliott the highest-paid running back in NFL history last summer. In the past two months, they spent $20 million per year on one wide receiver and a first-round draft pick on another. That came despite the presence of a third wide receiver who eclipsed 1,000 yards in 2019.
The Cowboys lavishly invested in a running back when the offense’s best personnel grouping is three-wide receiver sets. They appear more fixated on quarterback Dak Prescott’s toy chest than building around Elliott.
First glances can deceive. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup should help more than Prescott and the passing game. Elliott stands to be arguably as much of a beneficiary.
The secret sauce to the Cowboys’ running game last season, an ingredient that coordinator Kellen Moore applied liberally, is how Elliott thrives when Dallas spreads out opposing defenses.
Cooper, Gallup and Randall Cobb each exceeded 700 snaps in 2019, as the offense was in “11” personnel — one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers — for about two-thirds of plays from scrimmage.
Of all personnel groupings the Cowboys deployed, including when multiple tight ends shared the field, Elliott found his greatest production from this “11” look.
Overall, Elliott averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 301 attempts in 2019. According to Pro Football Focus, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry when in 11 personnel, fifthhighest among the 23 NFL players with at least 80 eligible carries, and led the NFL in rushing yards from 11 personnel packages with 823 yards on 161 attempts.
When Cooper, Lamb and Gallup play together, defenses must respect the Cowboys’ ability to pass. Defenses generally will be forced to replace at least one linebacker with a defensive back, switching to a nickel or dime sub-package.
Last year, Dallas attempted to pass on 70 percent of plays from 11 personnel, about the league average, per Pro Football Focus.
There was no cheating to stop Elliott.
And so, the league’s highestpaid back — now second-highest to the Carolina Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey — got to work.
His longest carry of the season was a 33-yard touchdown in the season finale against Washington with the Cowboys in an 11 personnel package.
He bowled through four Buffalo Bills defenders, three of whom were defensive backs, and evaded a fifth defender’s diving tackle attempt on a 30-yard run in November. That also was 11 personnel.
Elliott’s 31-yard run with two broken tackles at Soldier Field before Chicago Bears defensive end Khalil Mack caught him from behind?
Eleven.
As a run blocker, Lamb exhibited physicality at Oklahoma and projects to be an asset for Elliott there. The rookie is considered versatile enough to play any of the Cowboys’ receiver positions, but coaches plan to give him extensive run from the slot in 2020. He can help seal an edge for Elliott on outside runs.
Elliott found less production from “12” personnel — one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers — in 2019, averaging 3.8 yards per carry on 77 attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, an Elliott run from an 11 grouping increased the Cowboys’ scoring probability, and an Elliott run from 12 reduced it.
Dallas looks less dynamic today in 12 personnel than a year ago.
It downgraded from Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin as the top tight ends to Jarwin and
Blake Bell. The latter is a primary blocker with 23 combined receptions in the past four years. The Cowboys mark his fifth NFL team in as many seasons.
In 2019, as a first-year coordinator, Moore used 11 personnel on 67.3 percent of his play calls, the sixth-highest rate in the league, compared with an 18 percent rate for 12 personnel. That usage gap should only widen next season.
Lamb’s arrival upgrades the Cowboys in the personnel grouping they like to use the most. This is obviously great for Prescott.
On second glance, it’s great for Elliott, too.