San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Watson’s QB foes make AFC South race one to watch
HOUSTON — Ten days before the 2019 season began, the AFC South’s starting quarterbacks were Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Marcus Mariota and Nick Foles.
Five weeks into the NFL’s offseason program, the starters are Watson, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill and Gardner Minshew II.
If the Texans are going to win the division for the fifth time in six years, they’ll depend heavily on Watson, who’s entering his fourth season and coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl appearances.
Stability at the most important position on the team is crucial to success. Instability was the Texans’ most pressing problem until Watson arrived in 2017 and ignited them to AFC South titles in each of the past two seasons.
Watson has a new play-caller in second-year offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, but the Texans continue to run coach Bill O’Brien’s system that’s been in place for seven years. That kind of continuity should benefit Watson and Kelly.
Last year, the deterioration of the division’s starting quarterbacks began in late August when Luck shocked Indianapolis and the NFL by retiring because of health reasons.
Luck’s retirement left the
Colts with his backup Jacoby Brissett as the starter, and they plunged from the divisional round of the playoffs in 2018 to a 7-9 record.
General manager Chris Ballard and coach Frank Reich responded to the disappointing season that included five losses in their last six games by signing Rivers to a one-year, $25 million contract to be the starter. They also drafted Washington quarterback Jacob Eason in the fourth round.
Rivers, 38, is going into his
17th season. Last season with the Chargers, he threw 23 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. His 88.0 rating was his third-worst as a starter.
There was a mutual parting of the ways and Rivers has been reunited with Colts coach Frank Reich, who was quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator during three years with San Diego.
Those who are predicting Rivers’ demise shouldn’t forget 2018, when he threw 32 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions to go with a 105.5 rating.
The Colts believe Rivers will help them catapult back into contention to dethrone the Texans as division champions.
Indianapolis had to change starting quarterbacks at the start of last season. Jacksonville was forced to make the move in the first game when Foles suffered a shoulder injury.
The Jaguars had no idea what they had in Minshew, a sixthround pick who played for Mike Leach at Washington State. Minshew, who turned 25 this month, started until Foles returned. Then the ineffective Foles was benched by coach Doug Marrone, and Minshew was promoted. He finished with a 6-6 record.
Marrone showed his support for Minshew by trading Foles to Chicago. That was no surprise to anyone who watched Minshew throw 21 touchdown passes and only six interceptions while posting a 91.2 rating.
Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel didn’t make a move with his quarterbacks until a 2-4 start with Mariota. In the sixth game, Mariota was benched and replaced by Tannehill. Vrabel named Tannehill, who played at Texas A&M, the starter for the seventh game.
Talk about good timing. The Titans acquired Tannehill in a trade with Miami to back up Mariota. Playing for a new contract, Tannehill made the most of his opportunity, leading Tennessee to a 7-3 record, including a victory over the Texans at NRG Stadium that clinched a wildcard berth in the playoffs.
In regular season, Tannehill threw 22 touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 70.3 completion percentage and 117.5 rating led the NFL.
Then, in the playoffs, Tannehill helped the Titans win road games over Baltimore and New England before losing the AFC Championship Game at Kansas City. He was voted NFL Comeback Player of the Year and signed a four-year contract worth $118 million.
Tannehill, who turns 32 in July, is back for his ninth season, and he’s a big reason many are picking Tennessee to win the
AFC South.
The Texans were underdogs going into the 2019 season, even though they were coming off an 11-5 record. Their 14-point loss to Indianapolis in a wild card game at NRG Stadium caused most experts to pick the Colts, primarily because of Luck’s performance that season.
Despite Rivers’ history as an outstanding passer, Tannehill’s revitalization and Minshew’s surprising debut, Watson is still the best quarterback in the AFC South. He’s also the youngest of the four starters. He doesn’t turn 25 until September, making him three months younger than Minshew.
As long as Watson is in the lineup, the Texans are still the team to beat in the AFC South until somebody forces them to vacate the division penthouse.
Knowing Watson’s competitiveness, expect him to use the Texans being picked for third place in the division to his advantage. Extra motivation for Watson should be even challenging for AFC South defenses.
In 12 starts against division opponents, Watson has a 9-3 record with 19 touchdown passes, four touchdowns rushing and seven interceptions.
If Tannehill, Rivers and Minshew play the way their teams believe they will, Watson is going to have to be even more spectacular for the Texans to defy the experts and continue to rule the division.