Cristobal puts oil, Louisiana in crosshairs as it crosses Gulf

Tropical Storm Cristobal is gathering strength as it moves north toward U.S. oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Louisiana, where flooding rains will probably bring the worst of the damage. The storm’s threatened fury has been enough to shut more than than 30 percent of offshore gas and oil production.

Cristobal’s winds have strengthened to 50 mph, and its center was about 310 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory Saturday afternoon. Its tropicalstorm strength winds reach out about 240 miles from its center with the worst of them on the eastern side.

As it moves back over water, away from Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, the storm is expected to bulk up even more, with winds peaking at around 60 mph. Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for coastal areas from Louisiana to Florida.

“Overall, the main threat from the storm is going to be the flooding rainfall,” said Rob Miller, a meteorologist with AccuWeather. “It is still a few hundred miles away, but the rain shield is already spreading into Florida and along the Gulf Coast. We are already seeing heavy rain sneaking up the west coast of Florida.”

The Hurricane Center said the storm could cause heavy rains from East Texas to Florida this weekend and into early next week. A tropical storm watch was posted for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Intracoastal City, La., to the Alabama-Florida border.

On its current track, Cristobal will pass through the eastern side of U.S. offshore energy installations, where some companies have already evacuated nonessential workers. The storm will then likely slam into Louisiana some time after 6 p.m. Sunday, Miller said.

Parts of extreme southern Louisiana have ordered mandatory evacuations.

Jefferson Parish called for voluntary evacuations Saturday of Jean Lafitte, Lower Lafitte, Crown Point and Barataria because of the threat of storm surge, high tides and heavy rain. Residents were urged to move vehicles, boats and campers to higher ground.

“We want to make sure residents are safe as this storm approaches, so we are taking all the necessary precautions to be fully prepared,” Jean Lafitte Mayor Tim Kerner Jr. told the Advocate.

A similar order was issued Saturday for several Plaquemines Parish communities, including Happy Jack, Grand Bayou, Myrtle Grove, Lake Hermitage, Harlem and Monsecour. Parish President Kirk Lepine said the order was issued as a precaution.

“We need to ensure residents are protected as this storm draws near, so we are taking all the necessary precautions to be completely prepared,” he said.

Gov. John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency to prepare for the storm’s possible arrival.

“Now is the time to make your plans, which should include the traditional emergency items along with masks and hand sanitizer as we continue to battle the coronavirus pandemic,” Edward said in a statement released Thursday.

On Friday, he asked President Donald Trump to declare a prelandfall emergency for the state due to the storm’s threat.

“We are confident that there will be widespread, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding,“Edwards said in a letter to the White House. “I anticipate the need for emergency protective measures, evacuations, and sheltering for the high-risk areas. The length of possible inundation is unknown and will likely require post-flood activities.”

Cristobal has been stretched out by larger weather patterns, so its worst winds are actually far from its center. The public shouldn’t fixate on the track, which is based on its core, Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center,

wrote in an analysis.

Its disorganized shape will rob it of much of its power, keeping damage to about $200 million at the high end, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research, in Savannah, Ga. Coastal areas and rivers will flood, trees will be toppled and power lines brought down.

Offshore platforms account for 16 percent of U.S. crude oil production and 2.4 percent of natural gas output, according to the Energy Department. Additionally, more than 45 percent of U.S. refining capacity and 51 percent of gas-processing capacity is located along the Gulf coast.

Across the Gulf, 174 platforms have been evacuated, shutting down 33 percent of crude output and 31.5 percent of natural gas production there, according to the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

After moving north through Louisiana, Cristobal will transition to a more typical continental storm and drag a tail of heavy rain through the central U.S. By the middle of next week it will probably be over Chicago.

About 5 to 7 inches of rain could fall across a large swath of the Mississippi Valley in the next few days, and parts of Canada could get 2 inches or more, according to the U.S. Weather Prediction Center.

Cristobal is the third storm to form in the Atlantic this year, marking the fastest start to hurricane season on record.

Cristobal formed this week in the Bay of Campeche from the remnants of Tropical Storm Amanda, which had sprung up last weekend in the eastern Pacific and hit Central America. The two storms combined to soak the region with as much as 35 inches of rain in some areas over the past week.

At least 30 deaths have been attributed to the two storms and the flooding and landslides they unleashed.

Rescuers carry the body of a victim who was killed in a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Cristobal in Santo Tomas, El Salvador.

Tropical Storm Cristobal — and Tropical Storm Amanda, the Pacific storm from which it formed — soaked parts of Central America with as much as 35 inches of rain.