Poland is facing pivotal choice in presidential race

WARSAW, Poland — Voters in Poland on Sunday will decide a tight runoff election between populist incumbent President Andrzej Duda and his liberal pro-European Union challenger, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

Recent opinion polls show a race so close that it could hinge on a narrow margin of voters, which added urgency to the final days of campaigning in the central EU nation of 38 million people.

If Duda is reelected, he and the right-wing Law and Justice party that backs him will maintain a hold on almost all key instruments of power in the country, possibly until the next parliamentary election, which is scheduled for 2023.

The party’s welfare policies have helped reduce income inequality, creating reservoirs of admiration, especially in rural areas where the party’s attachment to Roman Catholic traditions also goes far.

But Law and Justice has exacerbated divisions in society with rhetoric marginalizing liberals, the LGBT community and other minority groups. It has also drawn criticism from some EU leaders for laws to increase political influence over Poland’s justice system.

A victory for Trzaskowski, who belongs to the main opposition party, Civic Platform, would give him veto power over the laws passed by the ruling party. Also, since the Polish president represents the country abroad, Trzaskowski would bring in a more pro-European side of Poland to European forums.

“If Trzaskowski wins, it will be a clear sign that the society has had enough and wants a kind of politics where compromise is a value,” said Wojciech Przybylski, editor in chief of Visegrad Insight, a policy journal focused on Central Europe.

Duda and Trzaskowski, both 48, eliminated nine other candidates in the first round on June 28. Duda got 43.5 percent support and Trzaskowski got 30.5 percent but is expected to pick up many of the votes that went to other candidates in the first round. There are nearly 30 million eligible voters and the new president will serve a five-year term.

Duda has the support of the powerful ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

He has traveled across Poland visiting open-air markets and vowing to protect the government’s signature spending policies. He was especially well received in farming regions and small towns, where government-paid bonuses have helped alleviate poverty and have given families with children more money to spend.

“This election will decide Poland’s development in the future, whether it will continue on the path to development,” Duda said at a rally in Starachowice, an industrial town of 50,000 in central Poland.

Duda has claimed that Trzaskowski would cut the popular welfare spending programs — but Trzaskowski has vowed to preserve them, acknowledging the “mistake” his pro-business party made in not introducing such help earlier.

Trzaskowski, a former European Parliament lawmaker, has vowed to heal Poland’s social divide and respect democratic rules. His support is strongest in larger cities and among more highly educated people, according to data from the first round.

“The stakes in this election are extremely high,” he told reporters.

Law and Justice will either “continue to destroy independent institutions, further try to politicize courts, destroy local governments and threaten the freedom of the media, or we will have a democratic state where the president restores the balance,” he said. “It’s now or never.”

Sunday’s vote, just like the first round, will be held under strict sanitary conditions. Voters must wear masks and gloves, maintain a safe distance and use hand sanitizer.

Posters show two contenders in Poland’s presidential election runoff to be held Sunday.