San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Fearing a repeat of winter disaster, this time in the heat of summer
Electricity outages in Texas could occur again this summer — just a few months after the devastating winter storm that left millions of Texans without power for days — if the state experiences a severe heat wave or drought combined with high demand for power, according to recent assessments by the state’s grid operator.
Experts and company executives are warning the power grid that covers most of the state is at risk of another crisis this summer, when demand for electricity typically peaks as homes and businesses crank up air conditioning to ride out the Texas heat.
Texas is likely to see a hotter and drier summer than normal this year, according to an April climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 2021 is very likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record globally.
“This summer, I am as worried right now (about the grid) as I was coming into this winter,” said
Curt Morgan, CEO of Vistra Corp., an Irving-based power company. “Sounds like I’m the boy that cries wolf, but I’m not. I’ve seen this stuff repeat itself. We can have the same event happen if we don’t fix this.”
As state lawmakers continue debating how to improve the grid after February’s storm nearly caused its collapse, Texans were asked April 13 to conserve electricity because the supply of power could barely keep up with demand. A significant chunk of the grid’s power plants were offline due to maintenance, some a result of damage from the winter storm.
The warning triggered a torrent of outrage from residents and political leaders across the state who questioned why the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the grid, allowed it to come so close to emergency conditions on a relatively mild spring day.
“I appreciate the increased effort toward transparency, but wow this is nervewracking to see in April,” state Rep. Erin Zwiener D-Driftwood, tweeted the day of the alert.
Heading into the summer, ERCOT included three extreme scenarios in a preliminary assessment of the state’s power resources for the summer — the most extreme calculations ERCOT has ever considered for the seasonal assessment. Each would leave the grid short a significant amount of power, which would trigger outages to residents.
In the first scenario, a drought similar to what the state saw in 2011, combined with low winds, several natural gas plants offline and an increase in economic activity as the pandemic eases, would leave the power grid short 3,600 megawatts, or enough to power 720,000 homes.
Add low solar power generation to the first projection (say it’s a cloudy day), and the grid would be short 7,500 megawatts, or enough to power 1.5 million homes.
In the most extreme scenario ERCOT considered, a severe heat wave across the entire state combined with outages for every major power source would leave the grid short 14,000 megawatts, or enough to power 2.8 million homes.
Power grids must keep supply and demand in balance at all times. When Texas’ grid falls below its safety margin of 2,300 megawatts in excess supply, the operator starts taking additional precautions, like what happened April 13, to avoid blackouts.
Pete Warnken, ERCOT’s manager of resource adequacy, told reporters near the end of March that the grid operator included the extreme scenarios to “broaden the debate on how to make the grid more resilient.” Still, he said ERCOT expects sufficient power reserves, “assuming normal conditions” this summer.
While the extreme scenarios have a very low chance of actually occurring, an unlikely and severe event happened in February, when extreme cold knocked out several sources of power at once just as the cold triggered surging demand for power and natural gas. More than 4.8 million customers lost power, and at least 111 people died during the storm.
A final summer assessment will be published Thursday.
“A catastrophic event like the winter storm could not be predicted several months in advance,” Warnken said, adding the preliminary report isn’t intended to forecast unprecedented events.
Rather, Warnken said the scenarios should help inform state leaders and the public of what’s possible. “The idea is the planners and stakeholders are aware that there’s a possibility something like that could happen,” he said. “These have a much lower probability of occurring than the traditional grid scenarios.”
John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist and director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies, said this summer in Texas is shaping up to be hot and dry. While it’s still early, he said, temperatures this summer will depend on how much rain the state gets between now and June. Parts of the state — South Texas to far West Texas — have been in drought conditions for more than a year.
“Temperatures during the summer depend a lot on how much rain there has been over the preceding several months,”