Woes at home, not greatness here, driving migrants north

A substantial portion of the migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border heading north are from Central America’s Northern Triangle: El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

They pay large sums to smugglers, risk robbery, assault and death on their journey, often must evade authorities on Mexico’s southern border and on the United States’ southern border, and frequently endure detention. And yet in spite of these obstacles, they continue to come in large numbers. While the United States is a great place to live, what primarily drives these Central Americans to migrate is less the pull factors of the United States and more the push factors from their homeland.

Three interconnected principal factors are pushing Guatemalans, Hondurans and Salvadorans to migrate: weak and corrupt institutions, endemic poverty and extreme violence. The average Northern Triangle resident lives either in poverty or barely above it, in a neighborhood infested with criminal gangs who extort, assault, rape and murder with near impunity, and within a political system where politicians often have little respect for the rule of law and are corrupt.

While in the 1970s El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras were ruled by dictatorships, today democratically elected presidents and legislatures govern. Yet the quality of these democracies leaves much to be desired, with feeble institutions, limited accountability and high levels of corruption. For example, among the countries ranked by Transparency International from least to most corrupt, El Salvador is 104th, Guatemala is 149th and Honduras is 157th. The U.S. is 25th.

All three countries have weak economies and suffer from endemic poverty, with more than one-third of Salvadorans and more than half of Guatemalans and Hondurans living below the poverty line. Per capita wealth ranges from 10 times (Honduras) to seven times (El Salvador, Guatemala) less than that of the United States.

El Salvador and Honduras are the most and fourth-most violent countries in the world that are not at war, annually averaging 52 and 39 murders per 100,000 residents. Guatemala ranks as 17th-most violent with 23 murders per 100,000, more than four times the U.S. murder rate of 5 per 100,000 residents. Brutal criminal gangs, such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, operate throughout the region, controlling almost as much populated territory in El Salvador and Honduras as the government.

There is no easy solution to the perfect storm of weak institutions, corruption, poverty and criminal violence in the Northern Triangle. To begin to remedy this situation would require actions by the United States that a majority of Americans would consider objectionable. These would include increased U.S. intervention into the political, legal and law enforcement institutions of these countries, as well as a massive investment of U.S. tax dollars. And even if the United States were to engage in neocolonial behavior and shower the countries with largesse, there would be no guarantee of success.

There are, however, some steps the U.S. can take to modestly improve conditions in the Northern Triangle and, in doing so, somewhat reduce the pressure placed on these countries’ citizens to flee to the United States.

First, work with the countries’ presidents to reduce lawlessness and violence via a twin approach of cracking down on the gangs while providing youth and young adults with enhanced educational, employment and recreational opportunities. This would, however, require the U.S. to work more with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele rather than against him, as is presently the case due to concerns about Bukele’s commitment to democracy.

Second, invest in productive activities in the countries to grow the economy and create jobs in the agricultural, manufacturing and tech-based knowledge sectors. In doing so, the Biden administration would need to be careful to ensure U.S. and multilateral funds are not siphoned off by corrupt local actors, or that too much investment flows to the countries’ coterie of crony capitalists in a way that benefits a tiny elite to the detriment of the general public.

Third, provide a pathway to citizenship for the approximately 260,000 Hondurans and Salvadorans who have lived in the United States (40,000 in Texas) under temporary protected status, or TPS, for 20 years, but whose ability to retain that status is under threat. A majority of TPS recipients provide remittances to relatives, and deporting them, most of whom have children who are U.S. citizens, would only worsen economic conditions in the Northern Triangle, compelling even more Salvadorans and Hondurans to migrate to the United States.

Dario Lopez-MIlls / Associated Press Families from Guatemala wait at a Border Patrol site in March. Slowing immigration would entail supporting Northern Triangle governments, and making economic and educational investments.