Texas steps up its rural vaccination effort

AUSTIN — Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations are at their lowest point in more than a year as the state surpasses more than half of eligible residents vaccinated against the coronavirus, a promising sign that comes months after Gov. Greg Abbott lifted his statewide mask order and moved to open businesses at 100 percent capacity.

Abbott has touted the state’s vaccine numbers and declining COVID-19 cases, but parts of Texas are still reporting low vaccination rates. Interest in the vaccine has waned and health experts warn that COVID-19 could continue to spread unless local and state health officials find a way to inoculate more of the state.

Roughly 200 of Texas’ 254 counties have yet to reach 50 percent of eligible residents vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, a benchmark set by the Texas Department of State Health Services. That number declines further when including children younger than 12, who aren’t yet authorized to receive the vaccine but can still spread the virus.

Even the state health agency’s goal of 50 percent is significantly lower than experts’ estimates of the percent of the population that must be protected from the virus to reach herd immunity, the point at which each infected person transmits the disease to an average of fewer than one other person, and it starts to die out. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has said the number could be as high as 85 percent.

President Joe Biden has set a national vaccination goal of 70 percent of adults by July 4, a threshold Texas is not close to reaching, even as several states have already surpassed that mark and others are poised to meet it. In neighboring New Mexico, nearly two-thirds of adults are fully vaccinated and three-quarters of adults have received at least one shot.

The risk for areas with low vaccination rates: a resurgence of the disease, especially as new variants spread, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky warned earlier this month.

“We have pockets of this country that have lower rates of vaccination,” Walensky said. “I worry that this virus is an opportunist and that where we have low rates of vaccination are where we may see it again. And so really the issue now is to make sure we get to those communities as well.”

East Texas targeted

State health officials are strategizing on how to improve the numbers in much of the state. Imelda Garcia, the state health agency’s associate commissioner for laboratory and infectious disease services, said officials regularly monitor vaccination data to determine where to focus outreach efforts.

The rate in East Texas is among the lowest in the state, with fewer than 40 percent of eligible residents in most counties in that region having received a dose. Meanwhile, vaccination rates in the state’s urban counties and the Rio Grande Valley are more than 60 percent.

“We know there are still a lot of Texas counties that are below that

threshold,” Garcia said. “We’re really trying to think outside of the box. How do we capture more willing individuals in a way that’s really simple for them?”

State health officials have shifted efforts to target East Texas, using roving local health officials and military teams to go directly to residents. The Texas Department of Transportation has offered vaccine clinics at some rest stops and will expand the program in the coming weeks, Garcia said.

The state health agency also made a $1.5 million investment to encourage Texans to get vaccinated as demand declines. The agency launched TV and radio ads and 22 pop-up events in Walmart parking lots.

“In the rural areas, it may take a little bit more of a lift to get it done,” Garcia said, adding that those areas have seen a promising uptick in vaccinations among older populations. “They are continuing to increase the numbers that are being vaccinated collectively.”

Early surveys showed a gap between Black and white Americans, but more recent polling

found that political party and geography best reflect the nation’s vaccination gap, with Republican men least likely to get vaccinated over skepticism about the danger of the coronavirus and general distrust of vaccines.

Counties below 30 percent

That divide is clearly illustrated in the vaccination map of Texas, which echoes the outcome of the 2020 presidential election: counties carried by Biden are seeing much higher vaccination rates than many of the rural counties that preferred former President Donald Trump by wide margins.

On the Texas-Louisiana border, Newton County has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the state with slightly more than 21 percent of the county’s 11,888 eligible residents vaccinated with at least one dose, according to state health data Friday.

Panola County, also on the Louisiana border, has vaccinated nearly 27 percent of residents with at least one dose.

Both counties are among 11 Texas counties that remain below 30 percent vaccinated. By comparison, Travis County is poised to hit 70 percent of eligible residents vaccinated with at least one dose. Harris and Dallas counties are at nearly 60 percent, and El Paso County is over 73 percent.

The Texas vaccine rates are calculated using the state’s eligible 12 and older population, rather than the entire population count. Until the vaccines are approved for emergency use for children under 12, expected this fall, it will be difficult to reach herd immunity in Texas and the rest of the country.

Texas lies somewhere in the middle compared to the rest of the country when including children under 12. Roughly 46 percent of the state has received at least one dose and nearly 40 percent are fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, California stands at nearly 60 percent vaccinated with at least one dose. Vermont has the highest rate in the country, with more than 72 percent of the state vaccinated with at least one dose.

Still, coronavirus cases and hospitalizations remain low in Texas.

Dr. Rajesh Nandy, associate professor of biostatics and epidemiology at the University of North Texas Health Science Center at Fort Worth, said that’s thanks in part to the high vaccination rates in metro areas. Many of the state’s urban areas could be close to 80 percent immunity, Nandy said, when including those who have natural immunity through a previous infection.

But rural areas have yet to see significant COVID-19 spikes since the winter surge, early in the vaccination rollout, which Texas health experts attribute to low population density and the large number of Texans who have “natural immunity” because they’ve already been infected.

But it’s not clear how long natural immunity lasts, and health experts say a COVID-19 vaccine can provide more protection than natural immunity.

“That’s even more of a reason that we need to vaccinate as many people as possible,” Nandy said.

Even if the state doesn’t reach a target goal for herd immunity, a major outbreak is unlikely, Nandy said.

“We still need to be cautious, monitor the daily cases, hospitalizations, but I don’t think it’d be a sudden jump,” he said.

Yi-Chin Lee / Staff photographer Mayor Sylvester Turner puts a bandage on Lajuan Jenkins, 46, after he received his first COVID-19 vaccine shot in Houston. Urban areas have higher inoculation rates in Texas.