‘A silver lining’ seen in omicron outbreak

A little more than two weeks since omicron’s discovery, a lot has been learned about the latest coronavirus variant. A lot remains to be discovered.

Early data from South Africa, the epicenter so far, shows that the virus appears to spread far faster than earlier strains but also doesn’t appear to be causing severe disease.

Nothing is definitive yet, so the world is still somewhat in the dark. With omicron cases doubling every few days in the U.K., policymakers and investors are grasping at any clues; the spread in Britain could be a harbinger of things to come across Europe and the U.S.

Health officials had been moving toward the end of the year with a little hope that the COVID era was shifting into a newer, more manageable phase.

But now it’s not clear yet if 2022 will succeed where 2021 has been defeated: suppress the spread of the virus enough to stop the rolling infection waves and finally end social restrictions.

Initial lab studies indicate omicron is much more transmissible than even delta, the strain that spread rapidly across the globe, filling hospitals and boosting death rates. They also show that it can infect the vaccinated or those who have already been ill with COVID-19.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said last week that information so far points to a less severe mutation.

“The big challenge we’re going to have is confirming that over the next two weeks,” he said on his Osterholm Update podcast. “From there, then we can figure out what does it mean in terms of the next leg of the pandemic for the world.”

This is what we know so far:

Fast spread

In Gauteng, where South Africa’s outbreak is currently centered, the reproduction rate — how fast the virus spreads — is over 3. That’s the highest it’s been and means that every infected person on average infects three more.

Cases in South Africa are rising at a near-record pace, and the rate of increase has outstripped South Africa’s three earlier waves.

Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible than delta, according to a study in Japan.

The U.K. says the new strain is growing much faster than delta, and it expects omicron to become the dominant variant by the middle of December, accounting for more than half of new cases. On Friday, the U.K. reported almost 58,200 COVID cases overall.

Less severe

With the outbreak just a few weeks old, doctors have reported patients with fatigue and headaches and little more. That’s a big contrast to delta’s racing pulse rates and respiratory problems.

South Africa’s three biggest private hospital operators say cases are much milder than in earlier waves. There are few people on oxygen or ventilators and only a slight uptick in deaths.

Currently there are about 5,000 people with COVID-19 in South African hospitals, a quarter of the peaks seen in the previous two waves.

Initial hospital admissions in South Africa saw a higher number of children under the age of 5 than previously.

Still, most only stay in hospital for a short time, and Health Minister Joe Phaahla says there are no reports of respiratory complications.

What next?

Depends who you listen to. Richard Friedland, the chief executive officer of South Africa’s biggest private hospital group, Netcare Ltd., is optimistic. “I actually think there is a silver lining here and this may signal the end of COVID-19, with it attenuating itself to such an extent that it’s highly contagious, but doesn’t cause severe disease,”

he said. “It’s early days, but I’m less panicked. It feels different to me on the ground.”

The World Health Organization is remaining cautious for now given so many unknowns, and the concern that any variant is a risk.

“If they’re allowed to spread unchecked, even though they’re not individually more virulent or more lethal, they generate more cases, put pressure on the health system and more people die,” said Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO emergencies program. “We should hope for the best outcome, but in this particular case, hope is not a strategy. We need to be very careful on making any final determinations on severity.”

Jerome Delay / Associated Press Medical scientists Melva Mlambo, right, and Puseletso Lesofi prepare to sequence COVID-19 omicron samples last week at the Ndlovu Research Center in Elandsdoorn, South Africa. Doctors in South Africa say patients aren’t getting as sick with omicron.