Texas experts watching trends as virus spikes in Europe, Asia

As COVID-19 cases decline in Texas, case numbers are spiking in Europe and Asia, led by omicron subvariant BA.2. Texas health experts are closely watching virus trends abroad, but they say there’s little concern the BA.2 variant will lead to a dangerous spike in the state.

First detected in December, BA.2 is a more contagious version of the original omicron variant, called BA.1. While it is not yet the dominant variant in the U.S., BA.2 has been in Texas since at least late January, when UT Southwestern Medical Center researchers confirmed its presence through genetic sequencing.

The omicron variant caused a historic surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in early 2022. Its rapid spread throughout the U.S. likely will protect most Americans from severe illness if they catch BA.2 because the subvariant responds to omicron antibodies, said Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist with the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.

“The good news is the vaccine protects you against BA.2, and a previous infection with omicron protects you at least somewhat against the BA.2 variant,” she said. “So, even if we do see an increase in cases because of BA.2, we’re not expecting to see a big increase in hospitalizations and deaths.”

Scientists at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health estimated in February that about up to 80 percent of Americans could be immune to omicron by about this time. That could prove helpful as BA.2 becomes more prominent in the U.S.

As of the week of March 6, BA.2 represented about 11 percent of U.S. COVID-19 cases, up from just 1 percent in the week of Jan. 30, the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention reported.

If BA.2 starts to spread more rapidly in Texas, it’s possible that the trajectory at which COVID-19 cases are decreasing will slow down, said Dr. Trish Perl, chief of infectious diseases at UT Southwestern. As of now, researchers are monitoring the spread of the variant in the area and in other countries.

As of Friday, the seven-day average for Bexar County is 73 cases, down from 115 a week ago, according to the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District.

Many U.S. cities have adjusted back to near-pre-pandemic living in recent weeks as cases slowed. The CDC lowered its mask guidance for most healthy Americans.

The spread of BA.2 in the U.S. shouldn’t affect that trend toward pre-pandemic normalcy unless there’s an increase in hospitalizations, Troisi said.

Overcrowded emergency departments and overworked health care staff are getting some reprieve with the dip in coronavirus cases after four COVID-19 surges in two years. Experts say that, because of the community’s stronger immunity against omicron, the health care system likely won’t take much of a hit from

BA.2.

“While it is possible, I don’t see this being a surge that has a significant impact on our health care system,” said Erin Carlson, associate clinical professor and director of graduate public health programs at the University of Texas at Arlington.

“Who this really predominantly impacts are people who are medically vulnerable,” she said.

The vaccine offers less protection for some groups, including people who are immunocompromised and people older than 65, because their immune systems are less able to generate antibodies that protect cells against COVID-19.

Pfizer on Tuesday asked the Food and Drug Administration to approve a second booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine for people 65 and older. On Thursday, Moderna asked the FDA to approve a fourth shot of its vaccine for all adults.

The CDC already recommends that immunocompromised individuals receive a second booster shot.

At-risk groups may want to continue wearing masks in public spaces if BA.2 spreads more in Texas, Carlson said.

Billy H.C. Kwok / New York Times Texas health experts are closely watching as case numbers rise in Asia and Europe, but they say there’s little concern that the BA.2 variant will lead to a dangerous spike in the state.