San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
Needs abound at every position
HOUSTON — The Texans have never entered an NFL draft wielding two first-round picks, but even that luxury can appear insufficient when considering just how many needs there are on the rebuilding franchise’s roster.
To hear the ever-candid Lovie Smith contextualize Houston’s No. 3 and 13 picks against the team’s wide-ranging needs, it’s almost like talking to a builder who needs to repair a house’s foundation, insulation, electric wiring and air conditioning but for now can only splurge on two of the issues and is figuring out where to start.
“Well, we won four games last year,” the Texans coach said at the NFL’s annual league meetings. “So, you start with that. I talk about where you start, but we’re looking at all the areas.”
Draw up a depth chart and Houston’s needs are evident. Smith himself listed some of the positions that need bolstering: Cornerback and safety, the linebackers need an upgrade, there’s a definite case for adding a running back, you can never have too many wide receivers…
Sure, those are all positional needs for the Texans. But would any NFL team spend a No. 3 overall pick on any of them this year? The total estimated value of a selection at that slot is $40.1 million spread over a contract of four years, according to Over The Cap. Teams are investing in franchise foundations with a draft pick that high, and there are few prospects that meet that threshold in this draft beyond offensive and defensive linemen.
Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton could be one of them. He’d fill a vacancy left by the departure of Houston’s best defensive player, Justin Reid, who recently signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Chiefs.
The Texans still don’t have a bona fide, proven cornerback under contract, and Caserio could fill that need by drafting Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner if he’s available. But it’s also possible that Houston could meet that need at No. 13, if LSU’s Derek Stingley, who missed portions of his last two seasons with various injuries, drops that far.
“No matter how you look at it, we have No. 3 and 13 right now,” Smith said. “We have to be able to get some good football players there.”
Smith said he and general manager Nick Caserio share a common team-building philosophy that’s founded on first solidifying the trenches. The Texans could use help on both sides of the ball, although Smith said there are “some pieces in place already” on the offensive line with left tackle Laremy Tunsil, flex lineman Tytus Howard and center Justin Britt.
Caserio can shore up the offensive line in a way the previous regime was never able to do. Former head coach Bill O’Brien, who also served as general manager, was so intent on landing a premier offensive tackle that he exchanged Houston’s first-round picks in both 2020 and 2021 in a trade package with Miami that included Tunsil. The loss of those draft picks contributed to the diminishing talent across the roster, and Caserio can select a premier lineman much more simply.
But the Texans will have to decide how they define Howard, the franchise’s last first-round pick in 2019, and how much the 25-yearold factors into their future. Howard has performed better at tackle, his drafted position, but he started in 11 games at left guard last year due to the team’s desperate need for depth along the interior. Caserio wouldn’t commit to a specific position for Howard, nor did the executive say whether he’d pick up the fifth-year option on Howard’s contract that would keep him with the team through 2023.
“We’ll make the decision we feel makes the most sense,” Caserio said.
What could make sense is drafting a premier offensive line prospect such as Alabama’s Evan Neal or North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu. Both project as starting offensive tackles, but both players, especially Ekwonu, have excelled at guard in college. There’s a reasonable scenario in which the Texans draft one of them, evaluate them against Howard through training camp, then swing the best player to offensive tackle opposite Tunsil while the other plays guard in a field-the-best-five-blockers situation.
There are multiple layers with various possible consequences in this scenario. If either Neal or Ekwonu win out and play right tackle, then Howard remains at left guard and may want to pursue free agency in 2023 so he can play tackle elsewhere. Then the Texans would be in search of a guard.
If Howard wins out and plays right tackle in 2022, then the Texans have essentially spent a No. 3 pick on an offensive guard. No NFL team has ever spent a Top 5 pick on a guard. Even if the Texans part with Howard the following season anyway and slide whichever rookie to tackle to replace him, that rookie will have had the Howardesque experience of losing a year of development at their best position. And the Texans would still be in search of a guard.
Let’s make the scenario even more complicated. By 2023, Tunsil will be entering the final year of his three-year, $66 million contract extension. He’d be 29 years old and most likely not too interested in a significant pay reduction. So, just as the Texans theoretically solved their right tackle situation via their 2022 first-round selection, they’ll immediately be trying to figure out their left tackle situation. And they’ll still be in search of a guard.
Of course, this hypothetical exists in a vacuum. The Texans have 10 picks in the draft this year. They have two first-round picks in both 2023 and 2024. Their cap space will significantly boost next offseason. Caserio could also address their remaining offensive line needs with those picks and potential free agent signings. Perhaps Howard, Neal or Ekwonu becomes an excellent guard and there’s mutual interest to remain there.
But if the Texans use their No. 3 pick on an offensive lineman, it’ll be more like an air traffic controller trying to organize five landings than it’d be one pilot landing one plane on an open strip. The franchise would navigate the same supply-chain flow if they waited to pick an offensive lineman at No. 13, but it’s unlikely Neal or Ekwonu will be there.
The draft is deep enough at the position where there’s a reasonable scenario in which the Texans address another position at No. 3 and pick a promising prospect like Mississippi State’s Charles Cross at No. 13; but such a choice comes with less flexibility, because Cross only started at left tackle in college.
Drafting a defensive lineman appears more straightforward. Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, widely considered the nation’s best passrush prospect, is unlikely to be available at No. 3. The Texans are seemingly in range to draft Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux or Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson, who’d both give them an immediate upgrade on the edge. Smith’s defense thrives when it generates pressure with just four linemen, and whoever they’d pick would seemingly fit in right away.
Jonathan Greenard, Houston’s 2020 third-round pick, could also improve further as an efficient pass rusher after his eight-sack 2021 season if there’s more focus demanded opposite him. The addition would also fit into a fourman rotation that could include Jordan Jenkins and newly signed Ogbo Okoronkwo, although a No. 3 overall rookie will be expected to play the majority of the defensive snaps.
“It always starts up front,” Smith said. “You look at what’s available. Look at the offensive line prospects that we have in this draft. Pretty special. But you can never have too many good defensive linemen. There are a lot of good defensive linemen. This is a strong draft for a lot of different positions, and that’s why the more picks you have the better off you are.”