San Antonio Express-News (Sunday)
General speaks frankly, this time about China
This time last year, one of the military’s most candid generals grabbed headlines with a statement about mental health.
“Warrior Heart. No Stigma,” Air Force Gen. Mike “Mini” Minihan tweeted with a photo of his schedule with a mental health appointment. The post went viral as an example of self-care, empathy and understanding.
Minihan, a career C-130 pilot now responsible for the nation’s military cargo and refueling aircraft, is in headlines again — this time for his memo predicting war with China in 2025 and urging his forces to prepare.
The letter, addressed to subordinate commanders, appeared online last Sunday: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” it begins.
Like the mental health tweet, Minihan’s memo, titled “The Next Fight,” spread quickly. His words drew praise and criticism as they jolted his command and propelled the conversation
Nancy M. Preyor-Johnson has the day off. about military readiness and future wars. All of which are likely what he intended.
Literary critics remain divided on the importance of “authorial intent,” but this isn’t literature, and the general spells out his “COMMANDER’S INTENT.”
“Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China,” he writes in what he describes as the first of eight monthly directives. “My expectations are high, and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them. I will be tough, fair, and loving in my approach to secure victory.”
The words feel channeled from an earlier era. Clear. Concise. Direct. Brutal.
And also likable?
Minihan’s staff at Air Mobility Command at Scott Air Force Base, Ill., confirmed the memo’s authenticity, and the Pentagon quickly distanced itself from the message, saying it did not represent the Defense Department’s view on China.
“The National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open IndoPacific,” Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said in a statement.
Congress members on both sides of the aisle lauded and disagreed with the general.
Minihan, who graduated high school in Austin, spent time in San Antonio when his dad was stationed at Kelly AFB and still considers Texas home, wrote that America will be distracted with the 2024 presidential election and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
He challenged his forces to be “ready to fight and win inside the first island chain,” and ordered them to update their weapons qualifications and ensure their personal affairs are in order.
Airmen will “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most,” he wrote. “Aim for the head.”
He also called for innovation and a concept to launch “100 off-the-shelf ” drones from a single aircraft.
From there, the internet did what it does with countless memes and comments that drove the general’s sentiment further into our consciousness.
Critics blasted Minihan’s phrasing, especially the term “clip” instead of “magazine,” and described the letter as “Boomerish.” But in the tradition of the Cold War classic “Dr. Strangelove” or the Netflix series “Space Force,” humor often carries ideas further than fear.
After interviewing Minihan a year ago, I wrote, “Here, the messenger was as important as the message and the medium. His salvo has ignited conversations across the Defense Department and the country.”
That sentiment holds true with the China memo.
Minihan wrote he “alone holds the pen on these orders,” and as the commander of a vast part of the military’s logistics system, his message landed differently than if it came from the leader of the nation’s fighter, bomber or missile forces. It’s no accident this writing was unclassified and widely distributed.
And the timing seems more than coincidental, with the secretary of defense’s visit to Asia, a growing U.S. presence throughout the region, concerns about Chinese development near U.S. bases, TikTok and the spy balloon that has flown into our imaginations.
We’ll learn in 2025 if Minihan’s memo was prescient. Let’s hope he’s wrong.