A soggy Christmas is possible across Texas

The already slim chances of a white Christmas are getting even lower as new weather model information continues to become available. Simply put, Texas will be too warm to have any snow falling across the state.

But rain is looking more likely, and that could cause some travel headaches by next weekend.

When do chances increase?

For Sunday and the first half of this week, dry weather is expected to continue across Texas, including in San Antonio. By Wednesday, an isolated shower becomes possible in South Texas, but chances will only be 10% to 20%. On Thursday, chances of light showers increase to around 30%, but its effects aren’t expected to be significant.

The higher rain chances appear to start on Friday and continue into the Christmas weekend. That is when a strong lowpressure system will approach the southern California coast and start transporting moisture from the Pacific Ocean straight into Texas.

The best rain chances appear to be setting up from Friday through Christmas Day. This falls right in line with the Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation outlook stretching from Dec. 2226. According to the outlook, above-average rainfall is expected across all of Texas. No, it likely will not rain the entire time, but the low pressure system will bring a couple rounds of moisture into the state over the course of the weekend.

Sunday’s forecast

In the meantime, it’s looking to be an absolutely gorgeous day across South Texas on Sunday. However, it will be quite a cold start to the day as low temperatures fall to between 36 and 39 degrees in the San Antonio metro area. A few spots in the Hill Country could even see temperatures dip to the freezing mark very briefly.

After the cold start, the big warm-up will commence. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s by 10 a.m., and they’ll reach the mid-60s by noon. High temperatures are expected to reach 70 degrees by 2 to 3 p.m. That is six degrees above average for mid-December. There will also be bright sunshine and light winds, so it will be a perfect day to spend outdoors.

Early this week

More nice weather is expected for the next few days. A few more clouds will work into the area Monday, but partly sunny skies are still expected as high temps reach the upper 60s. On Tuesday, even more cloud-cover will move in, but the rain chances will wait until at least Wednesday or Thursday.

Rainiest Christmas ever

With rain in the forecast this year, let’s look back to the rainiest Christmas ever recorded in South Texas. If we take the highest twoday rainfall from Dec. 24-25, we find that only three times has San Antonio recorded at least an inch of rain on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combined. Those three years were 1888, 1938 and 1975. The most rain ever over the holiday came in 1975 with 1.37 inches falling.

For what it’s worth, San Antonio has not measured any rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day since 2011. That streak could come to and end this year.