» Two Texans having even a shot at the nomination is a first in modern history.
Their twin campaigns represent first time two Dems from state actually have chance
For the first time in modern presidential primary history, two Texas Democrats with even a slim chance are vying for the White House in the same year.
When El Paso native Beto O’Rourke jumped into the race on Thursday morning, he joined former San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro in the upper echelon of a crowded field of 2020 Democratic candidates.
Since Lyndon Baines Johnson left the White House in January 1969, only one Texas Democrat (Lloyd Bentsen in 1976) has made a serious run at being president, and it’s rare for two native sons to face each other in the Iowa caucuses.
“I can’t think of a time when we had two legitimate contenders for the nomination,” SMU political science Professor Cal Jillson said.
Jillson said there was a point in 1980 when Republicans George H.W. Bush and former Gov. John Connally were rivals in the same uphill battle against former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, but Connally’s campaign never really took off and he finished way back in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
A double shot of Texans on the national stage is yet another sign of the state’s shifting political climate. Once considered a GOP stronghold, Texas is more in play that it has been in a generation, Democratic Party leaders say.
“We could not be more excited about the 2020 election,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said.
But while the two Democrats are making history by just being in the race, they also are up against history.
Neither Castro, 44, nor O’Rourke, 46, ever has been elected governor or to the U.S. Senate, credentials that have historically been a prerequisite to winning the Democratic nomination.
It’s been 95 years since Democrats last nominated a candidate for president who had not served as one or the other. In 1924, Democrats nominated John W. Davis of West Virginia. He served just two terms in the U.S. House and was easily defeated by Republican Calvin Coolidge.
The lack of statewide political
experience is even more pronounced given the other Democrats in the field.
In a poll released last weekend by the Des Moines Register of likely Iowa caucus voters, both Castro and O’Rourke were in the top 8. But they also were the only two among the top 8 who’d never served in the U.S. Senate.
On the other hand, in the era of Donald Trump, those traditional measures of a candidate may not apply, said Nate Lerner, who spearheaded a Draft Beto campaign to pull him into the presidential race. Trump, who grew famous on TV, never had run for office before getting into the presidential race and winning.
A simple message that voters can relate to, notoriety and fundraising are seen as must-haves in modern politics.
“What we need is someone who can win,” Lerner said.
Rivalry downplayed
While they will be fighting over some of the same voters in Iowa and other early voting states, O’Rourke and Castro both have downplayed any potential rivalry.
From the start of his campaign, Castro has insisted that there’s more than enough room for himself and O’Rourke in the crowded Democratic field.
And O’Rourke made clear in his first stops in Iowa that he isn’t interested in going after Castro or any other Democrat.
“Critically important that we do not denigrate or demean any other candidate,” O’Rourke said.
But Castro also isn’t shrinking from the challenge of dealing with O’Rourke in the race.
Within hours after O’Rourke’s announcement, Castro put out a news release showing he had rounded up support from 30 elected Democrats, primarily from the Texas Legislature.
U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, Julián’s brother and chairman of his campaign, said of O’Rourke’s entry: “The primary field is going to be full, as we expected, and we wish everyone well in their campaigns.”
Julián Castro has been cast among the more liberal candidates, embracing health care and energy proposals favored by leftleaning Democrats, and going beyond them in speaking of the imperative of paying reparations to African-American descendants of slaves.
O’Rourke, on the other hand, likely will be viewed as a moderate in the race, lacking a footprint from his three terms in Congress in a Democratic minority.
O’Rourke and Castro also start the race in very different places, said Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Sabato said O’Rourke starts with a big fundraising network, more name recognition and clearly is a top-tier candidate — as evidenced by the $80 million that O’Rourke raised in the U.S. Senate race he lost to Republican Ted Cruz.
Castro has a lot of work to do to get to where O’Rourke is, Sabato said.
Castro, the former housing secretary, has national campaign experience, having served as a surrogate at campaign events for Hillary Clinton during her presidential run. He also was on her short list for vice president. But he has to prove he can raise the money and fire up the crowds in one of the biggest fields the Democrats have ever had.
During a stop in Austin earlier this week, Castro said he’s feeling momentum in Iowa.
“We’re making up ground,” Castro said. “No question I have plenty of work to do in these early states. But I’m going to do the work. One of the ways you can measure candidates is through the amount of traction that they get when they get in front of people. And I can tell I’m going to gain good traction as I get in front of people.”
Jillson said Castro and O’Rourke have vastly different pressures on them from the start. He said Castro needs to prove he can compete in Iowa. O’Rourke has to prove he can build the network to compete in multiple early states at the same time.
It is imperative for both of them to be in the top 10 by the time Iowa votes in February 2020.
“O’Rourke has a better chance to stay in,” Jillson said. “There won’t be more than 8 of them left after Iowa.”