As Pop tinkers, is team headed for a changing of the guards?
Let’s resist the urge to guess what Gregg Popovich was thinking. In this specific instance, his rationale was less significant than the symbolism of the moment.
In the closing minutes of a loss at Houston on Monday, when Popovich sent DeMar DeRozan to the end of the bench and put Derrick White and Dejounte Murray on the floor together, he might have been trying to send a message. Or, more likely, he might just have been trying to win a game.
Popovich tends to scoff at the way people overanalyze substitutions, and it’s true that this was far from the first time in his career he’s pulled a star player in a big moment. There’s a decent chance he’s already forgotten about this particular decision, and will make a different one the next time.
But even as Popovich’s team let another winnable game slip away in a season becoming increasingly forgettable, one couldn’t help feeling those last few minutes against the Rockets provided a possible glimpse into the future.
When the Spurs finally are ready to start hanging with the elite of the NBA again, DeRozan probably won’t be around.
But White and Murray might be.
Last year was supposed to
mark the start of a transition in San Antonio, and it did. But this strange middle period between a prolonged era of glory and whatever comes next isn’t over yet.
DeRozan is a placeholder. This is not intended to be a disparagement, nor is it meant to suggest that it’s his fault the Spurs are in the position they find themselves now. He didn’t ask to come here, and he’s done an admirable job trying to make the most of it.
He and LaMarcus Aldridge lifted the Spurs to a playoff berth last season, and it’s still not out of the question that they will do it again. As terribly as the first two months of the season have gone, they entered Tuesday night just two games out of seventh place.
And let’s be clear — the Spurs have no intention of tanking this season for a lottery pick. There are no guarantees Popovich will stick around beyond next spring, and he’s trying to win. The players are, too.
But most everyone is realistic about this team’s ceiling, too, and that’s where Monday night’s late-game lineup shuffle came into play.
Why was it a big deal that Popovich — who has had nothing but effusive praise for DeRozan’s professionalism since he arrived from Toronto — pulled the veteran with 4:46 remaining and left him on the bench for the rest of a 109-107 loss?
Well, for one thing, it’s a big deal because it’s the first time Popovich seems to have acknowledged that putting DeRozan on the floor might not always give the Spurs their best chance to win. He was not good against Houston on Monday, he’s had some welldocumented struggles in the closing minutes of other close losses this season, and advanced statistics have not painted a kind picture of him overall.
Yes, DeRozan leads the team in scoring. But the Spurs have been outscored by an average of 7.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor. And per ESPN’s “real plus-minus” statistic, an imperfect measure of a player’s overall impact at both ends of the floor, DeRozan ranks 374th out of 432 NBA players this season.
So it shouldn’t have been a complete shock that Popovich tried something different. It also shouldn’t have come as a complete surprise that Popovich finally would pair White and Murray in the same backcourt for an extended period. We should expect to see more of that, and throwing more Lonnie Walker IV into the mix probably would be a good idea, too.
Those three youngsters don’t necessarily look like the nucleus of a future championship team, but they give the Spurs a start. And it’s getting tougher to envision a scenario in which DeRozan fits into the long-term plans with that group.
He can opt out of his contract this summer, and if he does, he will be one of the biggest names on the free-agent market. Somebody will be eager to give him a more lucrative deal than the Spurs will. And if he leaves, because of salary-cap rules, the Spurs won’t be able to spend nearly as much on his replacement as they did on him.
So even if his stint at the end of the bench Monday was an aberration, it will not be the last time before the February trade deadline that the Spurs ponder the thought of life without him.
Perhaps a team that covets an appealing third scoring option and a solid locker-room presence comes up with an offer San Antonio won’t be able to resist. Perhaps the Spurs will elect to ride it out instead.
But sooner or later, they’ll turn things over to the kids, just like Popovich did Monday night.
Whether he was thinking of the future or not.