‘It’s the economy, stupid’? Polls say maybe not this time
A new CNN poll finds that Americans are giving the U.S. economy unusually high marks — the highest in two decades, in fact. Three-quarters (76 percent) of respondents rate economic conditions in the United States today as very or somewhat good.
The challenge for 2020 Democrats, of course, is how they can possibly challenge the incumbent given these strong economic numbers. Pundits have suggested this is a near-impossible task.
But even in the absence of an imminent recession — which no one of either party should be rooting for — it’s really not so difficult to imagine how Democrats could spin recent economic developments to their advantage.
First, Democrats argue — as I and others have pointed out ad nauseam — that the president always gets too much credit when the economy is good and too much blame when the economy is bad. The president frankly doesn’t have that much control over big macroeconomic trends.
Of course, the fact that we have to keep repeating this truism ad nauseam suggests that it might not be, err, the most politically compelling argument.
During Thursday’s Democratic debate, moderator Judy Woodruff asked the candidates about this challenge. Specifically: “What is your argument to the voter watching this debate tonight who may not like everything President Trump does, but they really like this economy and they don’t know why they should make a change?”
The candidates who responded mostly emphasized the unequal distribution of these recent economic gains.
“The middle class is getting killed. The middle class is getting crushed. And the working class has no way up as a consequence of that,” said former Vice President Joe Biden.
“I’m proud to stand on a stage with Democrats who understand that a rise in GDP, rise in corporate profits is not being felt by millions of families across this country,” echoed Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. “I’m proud to stand on a stage with people who see that America’s middle class is being hollowed out and that working families and poor people are being left behind.”
Republicans have pooh-poohed this take as being out of touch with Americans’ overwhelming economic optimism. Some recent data, however, suggest that it could, in fact, be a successful message.
For instance, Pew Research Center found that most Americans believe the current economy is helping the wealthy. But it also found that most Americans believe the economy is also hurting the middle class, the poor, those without college degrees and other demographic groups.
That same Pew poll suggests even a large share of might be receptive to this Democratic characterization of the economy.
Among lower-income Republicans — defined here as those with household incomes below $40,000 — most (57 percent) say the economy overall is excellent or good. Even so, about half (49 percent) say the economy is hurting the middle class. And perhaps even more significant: When these respondents were asked to assess whether the economy is helping or hurting their own families, about half (47 percent, a plurality) said they believe they’re personally being hurt by the current economy.
It’s not just perception, either. Promised wage gains from the GOP tax cuts have not arrived. Inflation-adjusted wages are rising at about the same yearover-year pace as they were in the year or so before Donald Trump took office (a little over 1 percent).
Other kitchen-table issues, such as the cost of health care, also cut in Democrats’ favor.
Recent polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows the public trusts Democrats more than Republicans on a slew of health-related policy questions. That dynamic could change, of course — especially if the eventual Democratic presidential nominee emphasizes a health proposal that puts the party back on defense again (such as a system that eliminates private insurance).
Finally, Democrats might also point out that — distributional consequences aside — even the headline economic growth numbers under Trump’s tenure aren’t really that impressive. The economy is on track to grow about 2.2 percent this year, based on forecasts from the Federal Reserve, Wall Street analysts and others. For context, during President Barack Obama’s second term, the economy grew at an average pace of … 2.2 percent.
That means Trump and his fellow Republicans spent nearly $2 trillion on unfunded tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations just to get us back to exactly where we were the tax cuts.
The bottom line: Despite the conventional wisdom that the good economy obviously favors the Republican Party going into 2020, this issue is still far from a slam dunk for either party at this point.