Draft acumen to be challenged by penalty
Loss of four picks hurts ability to boost farm system sagging after trades, callups
HOUSTON — For equal parts flourish and failure, drafting was a hallmark of the Astros’ renaissance under Jeff Luhnow. A few seasons of intentionally wretched baseball offered Houston a perpetual perch atop drafts, allowing it the pick of multiple years’ premium amateur talent.
Twice, the team mishandled the top overall pick, failing to sign Brady Aiken and drafting a bust in Mark Appel (one selection before the Cubs took Kris Bryant). Still, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman exist as examples of the Astros’ drafting success.
The two infielders remain cornerstones of a franchise that started to win and took its subsequent tumble down the draft pecking order. Even there, Houston found and developed talent that tantalized other teams. Last summer’s trade for Zack Greinke included Seth Beer, the No. 28 overall pick, and Corbin Martin, who was selected 56th overall.
But for the Astros, getting to draft even in spots like those will have to wait until 2022.
The suspensions and subsequent dismissals of Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch dwarfed another prominent penalty presented to the Astros for electronically stealing signs during the 2017 and 2018 seasons: — Houston will forfeit its first- and second-round picks in the next two drafts. Commissioner Rob Manfred foretold the sanctions in September 2017, when he punished the Boston Red Sox for illegally using an Apple Watch to decode signs. His ruling promised that “future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”
Because they finished with baseball’s best record (107-55) last season, the Astros were slated to select 30th in the 2020 draft — the final pick of the first round. Now their first selection will be the 72nd pick of the draft — the compensation pick Houston received after Gerrit Cole declined its qualifying offer and signed with the Yankees.
A 2021 draft order will obviously not be known until the 2020 regular season concludes. Given the strength of Houston’s returning major league team, though, it stands to reason the club will again give up a first-round selection in the late 20s or even at 30.
Houston also will give up its bonus pool money for its four forfeited picks. Each team has an alloted pool out of which it can pay its first 10 selections in the draft. The exact amounts for 2020 have not yet been released, but for reference, the Astros had a $5,355,100 pool in last season’s draft. Their first-round pick, at No. 32, had a slot value of $2.26 million.
Effects of this punishment will not be felt immediately, nor will they necessarily manifest themselves at the major league level. The Astros will remain formidable in 2020 and 2021.
But the franchise has a fairly gutted farm system that in August was ranked No. 15 by Baseball America. Hefty prospect prices for Greinke and Justin Verlander started the fall. The graduation of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez from prospect status this past season completed the fall for Houston’s once-fertile farm system.
Replenishing it for both trade capital and organizational depth will come primarily from the draft. For the next two years, the Astros will operate with fewer picks and a tighter budget to sign whom they deem their best selections. The restrictions place an even larger emphasis on the team’s relatively raw draft-day team.
Luhnow took a heavier role in the 2019 draft — his first without longtime director of scouting Mike Elias. Domestic scouting supervisor Kris Gross and director of player evaluation Charles Cook “co-led” the draft. Gross led field scouting efforts, while Cook spearheaded the scouting analysis. Special assistant Kevin Goldstein, formerly the team’s director of pro scouting, assisted on draft day as well.
While the draft losses were heavy, the Astros did skirt one other potential punishment. The league’s 2019 rules and regulations regarding electronic equipment and sign-stealing presented a loss of international bonus pool money as a potential consequence for any wrongdoing. Manfred’s ruling against the Red Sox in 2017 — the same season in which the Astros cheated — made no such mention of international penalties.
The consequences Monday for Houston’s transgressions in 2017 and 2018 included no dock of international bonus pool money, a bit of solace in an otherwise scathing release.
For the 2019-20 international signing period, Houston had a pool of $5,398,300. When the period opened July 2, the team signed 13 players who, according to Mlb.com, cost around $1.8 million. Thus, the pool still contains more than $3.5 million to be spent before the signing period concludes June 15.