Tropical Depression 14 in Caribbean appears to be headed toward Texas
A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and its current trajectory has it approaching Texas early next week.
Tropical Depression 14 is expected to cause tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, and it could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatán Peninsula late Saturday. It's expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center's update Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service's Houston/galveston office said in its forecast that the most likely landfall locations would be along the Texas or Louisiana coasts as a tropical storm around Tuesday. As of 4 p.m. Thursday, maximum sustained winds were reported to be near 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Meanwhile, another depression is also moving toward the Gulf. Tropical Depression 13 is more of a threat to Florida and the northeast Gulf states, forecasters said. It is forecast to become a hurricane. Both storms will likely be in the Gulf early next week, NWS said.
Historically, storms that move between the Yucatán Peninsula — which has parts of Mexico, Belize and Guatemala — and Cuba have a higher likelihood of coming toward Texas, said Jim Blackburn, co-director of the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center at Rice University, in a recent interview with the Houston Chronicle. He's heard it referred to as the slot for storms coming to the Texas coast.
This hurricane season, as of Thursday afternoon, has created 11 named storms. The average hurricane season ( June 1 through Nov. 30) has 12 named storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 19 to 25 named storms for the season that ends Nov. 30. Of these, seven to 11 could become hurricanes including three to six major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.