Polls: Trump, Cornyn hold lead in Texas
WASHINGTON — Just weeks before early voting begins in Texas, Republicans at the top of the ticket appear to be holding off Democrats, according to a pair of polls of likely voters released on Thursday that found nearly all of them had made up their minds in a tight presidential race.
The polls— by Quinnipiac University and the New York Times/siena College — are the latest to indicate the state is gearing up for the closest presidential race in decades, though President Donald Trump's lead is larger in the Quinnipiac poll than others that have suggested the race is essentially tied.
Trump led former Vice President Joe Biden 50-45 in the Quinnipiac poll. The poll surveyed 1,078 voters Sept. 17- 21. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Most likely voters in Texas — 52 percent — disapprove of Biden, while just 41 percent approve of the former vice president. Texans are more split on Trump, who drew approval from49 percent as 47 percent disapprove of the president. Ninety-four percent of voters say their minds are made up in the presidential race.
“It is close but leaning toward Trump in Texas,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. “There are still a slim number of likely voters who are undecided or on the fence about their choice, which could leave just enough wiggle roomfor either candidate to taketexas' many electoral votes.”
The New York Times/siena College poll, meanwhile, found Trumpleading by only 3 points, 46 to 43. The poll, conducted by phone among likely voters Sept. 16-22, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll found a big gender gap, with men picking the president by 16 points, while women supported Biden by an 8point margin.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 9 points in 2016. It was the closest any Democratic presidential nominee had come to winning the state since 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by 4.9 percentage points.
Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn led Democrat Mjhegar, a former Air Force pilot, by 8 points — and drew the support of 50 percent of likely voters for the first time this cycle, in the poll by Quinnipiac University. Hegar had support from 42 percent of likely voters in the poll.
There's more room to persuade voters in the Senate
race than the presidential, the Quinnipiac poll found, as just 84 percent of voters say they've made up their minds in the Senate race and 15 percent say they are still unsure who they'll vote for.
The New York Times/siena College poll found a much closer race, more consistent with other recent polling of the Senate contest. Cornyn led Hegar 43 to 37, but 14 percent of voters were still undecided. The poll foundcornyn had just a 2-point advantage with suburbanites — a key group for Democrats to win over if they're going to win a statewide race, 17 percent of whom said they were still undecided.
Democrats have argued Cornynis vulnerable this cycle in part because he's been stuck in the mid-40s in polling. Buthegar has struggled to introduce herself to voters — 50 percent of whom said they still don't know enough about her in the Quinnipiac poll. Cornyn now holds a 7.5 percentagepoint edge over Hegar, according to a Real Clear Politics average of public polling in the race.
Hegar's campaign said she's not discouraged by the latest round of polling, pointing out most polls still show roughly a third of voters aren't familiar with Cornyn, despite his nearly two decades in the Senate.
“The reality on the ground here in Texas is that Senator Cornyn is deeply vulnerable after repeatedly failing Texans in responding to COVID-19 pandemic and continually selling them out to his political and special interest allies,” said Jake Lewis, a Hegar campaign spokesman. “Our campaign continues to harness incredible grassroots energy and has built the Texassized winning campaign that will defeat John Cornyn on Nov. 3.”
Meanwhile, the Quinnipiac poll found most Texas voters— 47 percent— plan to cast ballots at early voting places, while 38 percent plan on voting in person on Election Day and 13 percent plan to vote by mail.