Possible second wave looming in Northeast
In Boston, plans to bring children back to school have been halted as cases of the coronavirus climbed precariously. New virus clusters are emerging in Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland and Pennsylvania. In New York City, the number of new cases each day now averages more than 500 for the first time since June.
The Northeast, devastated by the coronavirus in the spring and then held up as a model of infection control by summer, is now seeing the first inklings of what might become a second wave of the virus.
The rise in new cases has prompted state and local officials to reverse course, tightening restrictions on businesses, schools and outdoor spaces.
In New Jersey, where hospitalizations are on the rise and the rate of infection has almost doubled to nearly 8 cases per100,000 people, towns have closed public parks and picnic areas to discourage people from gathering. Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island extended restaurant capacity limitations for another month, concerned about the state’s uptick in confirmed cases.
On Thursday, several mayors from across New York state rushed to quarantine after appearing at a news conference with another mayor who only later discovered that he was infected with the coronavirus.
Michael Osterholm, an infectious-diseases expert at the University of Minnesota, said that early in the nation’s outbreak, New York and much of the Northeast had successfully tamped down transmission of the virus with physical distancing and masking, as much of Europe had done.
“The point is, once you let up on the brake, then eventually, slowly, it comes back,” Osterholm said.
Since the spring, case numbers in the Northeast have plummeted overall. The region, which runs from Maine to Pennsylvania, is averaging about 60 deaths per day, the lowest in the nation, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
Still, the number of people in hospitals — a clear measure of those most seriously affected by an outbreak — is starting to trend slightly upward again in the Northeast. About 1,000 more people are in hospitals than last month, and daily reports of new cases have started climbing once again.
“Places like New York and other states in the Northeast could have more of the classic second wave phenomenon,” said Dr. Larry Chang, an infectious-disease expert at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, who said he was bracing for more outbreaks this fall. “Pretty much everybody expects things to get somewhat worse.”