Phoenix rises from long shot to favorite
It's perfectly appropriate in this topsy-turvy NBA postseason that the Phoenix Suns, who arrived in the first round as underdogs against the Los Angeles Lakers, now enter the NBA Finals as favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks. Such a label would have been nearly unthinkable at the start of the season, when Phoenix, which has reached the Finals for the first time since 1993, was given 40-to-1 odds to win its first championship in franchise history.
This sharp change of perception has been influenced by Phoenix's steady regular season and gutsy, emphatic run through the West. For coach Monty Williams, everything has fallen into place perfectly.
“I'm not one to make predictions or anything like that,” Williams said. “But when you have Chris [Paul] and [Devin Booker] and then you add Jae [Crowder] and the leadership and the growth of our team, and everything that [owner] Robert [Sarver] has given us, you thought, if things go our way, we could have a shot at competing.”
The Suns' path to the Finals was aided by injuries to Lakers forward Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard, among others.
Meanwhile, the Bucks claimed the East by sweeping the Heat, surviving the Brooklyn Nets, who lost Kyrie Irving and James Harden at points, and outlasting the Atlanta Hawks, who were down De'andre Hunter and, for two games, Trae
Young. But Milwaukee hasn't exactly been fortunate, losing starting guard Donte Divincenzo in the first round and two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo midway through the Eastern finals.
Phoenix's case as Finals favorites begins with its balanced offense and team defense, as well as health, workload, rest and homecourt advantages. Antetokounmpo hasn't played since Game 4 of the East finals, when he suffered a nasty hyperextension of his left knee while defending a lob. Although the Bucks ruled out ligament damage for their franchise player, it's unclear whether he will
get the chance to play in the first Finals of his career.
“You have to listen to the player and then you have to listen to the sports performance group,” Bucks Coach Mike Budenholzer said, when asked about Antetokounmpo's potential availability. “At some point [general manager] Jon Horst and myself are part of the conversations, but it's just a dayto-day thing.”
By comparison, the Suns enter the Finals in good shape. Paul has played through a shoulder injury, missed time due to COVID-19 protocols and sustained a wrist injury that required an MRI, but he held
up well enough to finish with 41 points and eight assists in the closeout Game 6 win over the Clippers. Booker is ready to go after suffering a broken nose that required him to wear a protective mask during the West finals.
When it comes to burden, Bucks forward Khris Middleton and guard Jrue Holiday have both logged more postseason minutes than any Suns player. In part because of his protocol absence, Paul will enter the Finals having played 200-plus fewer minutes than either Middleton or Holiday.
Williams hasn't been afraid to ride his best players for big minutes, but the Suns raced through the West with a 12-4 record and concluded the West finals on Wednesday. The Bucks, who went 12-5 through the East and needed seven games to finish off the Nets, didn't eliminate the Hawks until Saturday.
Phoenix will therefore enter Game 1 with five days of rest and having played just 10 games since June 7. Milwaukee will have just two days of rest, having played 12 games since June 7. Of course, the Suns will also host the first two games of the Finals because they had a better regular season record (51-21) than the Bucks (46-26).
“We've had long, extended pauses in between each round,” Budenholzer said. “I'm kind of excited to try it without one. Maybe we can be the team that's in a rhythm and all that.”
Despite Phoenix's many edges, rushing to judgment this year — of all years — would be foolish. The Bucks would get a big emotional boost from an Antetokounmpo return. For Paul to claim the first title of his 16-year career, Phoenix's relatively good health luck will need to hold for two more weeks.
“This is like a storybook for this part, getting to somewhere that I've never been before,” Paul said after eliminating the Clippers. “We still got a way to go. We still got four wins.”