Gubernatorial race tackles abortion
Polling shows Texans ‘pretty split’ on the issue
The Supreme Court is reportedly poised to completely overturn Roe v. Wade, sending the abortion issue back to state governments, and Republican leaders are already touting Texas as a “prolife state.”
But polling suggests that’s not entirely true. Roughly equal shares of Texans consider themselves “pro-choice” and “pro-life,” and voters overwhelmingly believe that abortion should be legal in at least some cases, such as if the mother’s life is at risk or if the pregnancy results from rape or incest.
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin has been tracking abortion trends for years. The researchers’ most recent poll, released in February, found that 53 percent of Texans oppose a complete ban on abortion if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. (Thirty-four percent supported such a policy, and 13 percent didn’t know or had no opinion.)
“When we look at polling of Texas voters, what we find is an issue that people are, broadly, pretty split on,” said Joshua Blank, the research director of the Texas Politics Project. “But ultimately, you find most Texans supportive of at least some access. It’s much more nuanced to the electorate than, certainly, is being portrayed by elected officials looking to take victory laps.”
In February, 43 percent of Texans said they believed abortion laws here should be less strict, while 23 percent said they should stay the same. An additional 23 percent said they should be stricter, and 12 percent had no opinion. Texas banned abortions after roughly six weeks of pregnancy last September.
These questions have become more relevant than ever since Monday, when a draft majority opinion was published indicating that the high court has initially voted to abolish Roe v. Wade entirely. The draft, written by Justice Samuel Alito in February, is not final, and votes could change before a formal decision is
“When we look at polling of Texas voters, what we find is an issue that people are, broadly, pretty split on.” Joshua Blank, Texas Politics Project
released.
An overwhelming majority of Texans — 81 percent — believe abortion should be legal when a woman’s health is seriously endangered. About 73 percent support exceptions for rape or incest, and 58 percent say abortions should be legal if “there is a strong chance of a serious defect in the baby,” according to an October poll by the Texas Politics Project.
Texas’ six-week abortion ban provides no exceptions for rape, incest or severe fetal abnormality.
Ten years of aggregated polling data from Gallup estimates that 70 percent of Texans believe abortion should be legal at least in some circumstances. About 18 percent believe it should be legal under all circumstances, while 10 percent said it should be legal in most and 42 percent said it should be legal in only a few. An additional 26 percent said the procedure should be outlawed entirely.
That’s in line with most other Gop-led states, according to Gallup.
“Although technically a competitive or ‘purple’ state in terms of how it voted in the past two presidential elections, Texas is more closely aligned with ‘red’ — that is, strongly Republican — states when it comes to its residents’ views on abortion,” Gallup analysts wrote in October.
Another October survey, by researchers at the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, found that nearly 7 in 10 Texans believed the state’s six-week abortion ban was overly restrictive. Still, a majority of residents — 55 percent — supported the law, according to the poll.
At least since 2014, roughly equal portions of Texans have identified as “pro-choice” or “pro-life.”
The Texas Politics Project is scheduled to release another poll this week showing roughly similar trend lines, Blank said.
In February, 42 percent of voters said they were pro-choice; 38 percent said they were pro-life. Thirteen percent said they were neither, and 7 percent didn’t know.
“When we talk about abortion attitudes in the public, we’re talking about a set of opinions that, for the most part, are fixed and reinforcing,” Blank said. “Most people know what they think about abortion because they’ve been exposed to these arguments for much of their adult lives.”
But, he noted, most of those “opinions and attitudes” have been developed in a post-roe world. That makes it difficult to predict how voters will feel or react if the high court does allow states to completely prohibit the procedure.
Nationwide, 58 percent of Americans do not support overturning Roe v. Wade, while 32 percent do, according to a June Gallup poll. That’s been consistent for decades.