Sportsbooks underestimate Texans — really
HOUSTON — After 20 years of this, you would think we’d have learned our lesson and know how to control ourselves. Nah.
When America’s most popular sport announces its season schedule, it is the news of the day.
I know the Astros doubled their pleasure and doubled their fun by twice trouncing the Twins on Thursday to run their winning streak to 10, but to many, finding out when and whom the Texans will play this fall means more.
Yes, the lowly Texans can garner attention in May.
And this time around, it is a good thing.
I am convinced that the Texans’ 21st season in the NFL will be much better than current projections.
The island I’m on isn’t very populated. Even many Texans fans don’t believe.
Gambling sportsbooks list the Texans with an over/under of 4½ wins next season. The lowest number in the NFL.
I’m not predicting the Texans will do what the Cincinnati Bengals did, going from a four-win team one year to the Super Bowl the next. But I would be shocked if the Texans didn’t improve significantly from their four-win season in 2021.
The Texans won four games last year despite starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor starting just six games, leaving the spot to a rookie who started only 11 games in college.
They won four games despite their head coach being a confused firstyear general in charge of a team for the first time on any level.
The Texans are much better off now than they
were a year ago.
Not only did they have an excellent draft and make some decent freeagent signings, they have significantly upgraded the coaching staff, particularly at head coach and offensive coordinator.
New head coach Lovie Smith is a winner, the best coach the Texans have ever hired.
Dom Capers, the Texans’ first coach, was four games under .500 after four years with the Carolina Panthers.
He was mostly hired because of his experience leading an expansion team. He was not nearly as good in Houston as he was in Charlotte, where the Panthers advanced to the NFC Championship Game in their second season.
Gary Kubiak, Bill O’brien and David Culley were all first-time NFL head coaches.
O’brien took over the most talented team of any of the Texans’ head coaches. The Texans’ over-under in O’brien’s first season was 7½ wins.
Smith takes over a squad that has lower expectations but potential. There won’t be much margin for error, but the Texans should be competitive.
The Texans open and close the year against the Colts, hosting them on Sept. 11 at NRG Stadium and traveling to Indianapolis in the first week of January.
Their last three games are against AFC South foes Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis.
“If I had control of drawing it up, you want to start off with a division opponent,” Smith said. “And in the end, once the season plays out, when you’re playing for it all, you want to play against the teams in your division.
“So it plays out well for us.”
When it comes down to the latter part of the season, when they hope to be in the playoff hunt, the Texans face a challenging finish.
After they play the NFC East’s Eagles, Giants and Commanders in November, December could be rough.
Former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns come to town Dec. 4.
Watson will be the best player on the field. The Texans won’t even gain an advantage from players wanting to put him in his place, because Watson never played with most of them. He never played for this coaching staff.
Any revenge-type motivation will come from Watson, not the Texans.
The next week, the Texans play at Dallas, then they host the Super Bowl contending Chiefs before going to Nashville to play the Titans on Christmas Eve.
Smith is already excited about the opener against the Colts and talks about bringing back the fans’ passion, which dissipated during the last two seasons.
After selling out every game in franchise history, the Texans couldn’t give away tickets last season.
Smith describes the crowd as the fourth phase of the team after offense, defense and special teams.
“In order for us to complete this overhaul of our program, to get back and take control of our division, we can’t do it without our fans,” he said.
In that chicken-or-egg scenario, the Texans probably need to win first.
They haven’t built up a lot of trust in two decades of disappointments.