Black Friday shopping ‘a mixed bag’ this year
Dlana Hunter was one of about a dozen people in line before sunrise outside a Target store on the Northeast Side.
She’d already finished most of her holiday shopping online — including ordering a Playstation 5 — but was waiting for Target to open so she could snag a Madden NFL 23 game, which was only available in stores Friday.
It was a bit of a throwback for the Alamo Heights accountant.
“I’d always come to Black Friday events, but I’ve shopped online since the pandemic started,” said Hunter, 46. “Now, with inflation, I’m considering lower costs and catching deals online.”
In the third year of the pandemic, retail experts are curious to see how the holiday shopping season shakes out amid record inflation and continuing shifts in shopper behavior. Heading into the closely watched weekend, they were identifying trends and making predictions.
“This year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday are a mixed
bag,” said Venky Shankar, director of research at Texas A&M University’s Center for Retailing Studies.
He said he expected that shoppers “feeling the pinch” of higher prices for food, gasoline and rent would spend more money at brick-and-mortar stores than last year. But he suspected that they would be buying more essential items such as groceries rather than discretionary products — particularly electronics.
“The spending is neutered,” Shankar said. “The richer people will continue to spend more, but the people who don’t have as much will be watching their wallets and purses much more.”
An early November survey by the National Retail Federation supported his predictions. About 67 percent of those who planned to shop on Thanksgiving Day said they were likely to head to brick-and-mortar stores, up 3 percent from last year — though fewer national big-box stores were open this Thanksgiving than in recent years.
The federation estimated that a record 166.3 million people will shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, about 8 million more than last year and 2 million more than in 2019, before the pandemic. And, similar to the past two years, 60 percent of shoppers started buying for the holiday season last month. But this year’s trends are a shift from a year ago, when consumers were buying early for fear of not getting what they sought amid supply chain snarls.
Adobe Analytics forecast that U.S. shoppers would spend $8.9 billion on Black Friday and $11.2 billion on Cyber Monday — when online retailers offer another crop of promotions, sales and discounts.
All told, the retail federation expects holiday sales through December to total between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion, up from $889.3 billion in 2021. That’s an increase of as much as 7 percent, less than the
rate of inflation.
‘Spending a little less’
As maskless customers moved from store to store Friday morning at North Star Mall, some described how they were taking advantage of deals and changing spending habits amid this year’s record inflation and economic worries.
“I’m spending a little less this year, but I’m fortunate to have a secure job,” said Alicia Nielson, a 32-year-old who walked her three children into the Lego Store in search of the 10,001piece Eiffel Tower model set. “I’m focused on getting games so the whole family can get together.”
But in-person Black Friday wasn’t the main event for Nielson.
“I did most of my shopping online, except for the Legos,” she said. “Then, we’ll look around the mall while we’re here.”
Both North Star and The Shops at La Cantera, managed by real estate firm Brookfield Properties, opened at 9 a.m. Friday, two hours earlier than usual. Some of the malls’ larger retailers, including Apple Store and Macy’s, had opened hours earlier.
Brian Schroeder, senior general manager at La Cantera, said earlier this week that he expected both shopping centers “to be busier this year, as we continued to see positive customer traffic and sales throughout the year.”
“This is the third year we’ve adjusted our hours, which has enabled us to provide a better customer experience and allows our stores in the mall to adjust based on their resources,” Schroeder said.
As they have through the pandemic, the shopping centers also continued to offer delivery and curbside pickup service.
Online improves
Another feature of the pandemic — supply chain issues and labor shortages blamed for delays in delivery of online purchases — are now less of a factor. Retail experts say the improvement has prompted more consumers to browse popular ecommerce websites for holiday gifts than in the past couple of years.
Through the first three weeks of November, according to Adobe, online spending reached $64.69 billion, up just 0.1 percent from last year.
“The minor uptick, however, shows that despite a challenging spending environment (persistent inflation, rising rates), consumers still have a strong appetite for holiday shopping,” Adobe said this week.
Adobe has tracked online sales through November. On Thanksgiving Day, it said, online shoppers favored the Nintendo Switch, online game Roblox, God of War Ragnarök released on Playstation 4 and 5, Paw Patrol toys and Instapot electric cookers.
Despite more people shopping online, retailers were hopeful consumers would flock to local brick-and-mortar stores if the San Antonio weather is good. Black Friday dawned with temperatures in the 50s, and shoppers were out despite rain in the forecast.
“The in-person shopping still dominates more than online, though online is growing so fast,” Shankar said. “But one of the things in Texas is the weather. If the weather is warm and bright, then there are more sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Things have been a mixed bag.”
Brenda Crawford, North Star’s senior general manager, said online shopping can’t compete with the experience of inperson shopping.
“There is nothing to replace going into the store to touch, feel and pick it up,” she said outside the Forever 21 clothing store. “There’s no shipping delays. There’s a whole retail experience that’s fun and exciting that the customers can only do here.”
‘Busier than it’s been’
Nearby, Maria Torres, 42, and family members held several bags from Abercrombie & Fitch.
“I didn’t come to the mall last year because of COVID,” she said in Spanish as she pulled a gray sweater from a bag emblazoned with the clothing store’s logo. “But I like coming here today because I get to see the clothes before buying them.”
While some retailers said they expected a sleepy Black Friday, Paula Shaver, manager at Lee Michaels Fine Jewelry store, said she was impressed with early traffic.
“It seems like we’re off to a busy and nice start,” she said. “It’s busier than it’s been in the past couple of years.”
Shaver said she’s optimistic despite shoppers’ economic concerns.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty, but people are making purchases,” she said. “I still believe it’s going to be a good season for business. People will find a way to make it work.”
Crawford predicted that the number of shoppers hitting the mall would increase throughout the day.
“Historically, we have not really got cooking until later,” she said. “In San Antonio, we start a little bit late but we go long.”
Indeed, by 9:30 a.m. crowds were growing as couples and families entered stores such as H&M, Hollister and Oakley — all displaying signs advertising discounts between 30 percent and 50 percent off all merchandise.
A mix of tourists and locals sat on couches inside the mall, holding their shopping bags and taking in the Christmas displays.
On a couch in one rest area, Jonathan Castillo, 33, who works for an automotive company in Monterrey, Mexico, adjusted several shopping bags as he eyed the roaming packs of people for his wife. She was out searching the mall for more Christmas gifts for their 3-yearold son.
They were in San Antonio visiting family for the Thanksgiving weekend. In recent years, Castillo said, the couple had visited North Star closer to Christmastime. This was their firstever Black Friday experience in the United States.
“I thought it would be more people, more crazy like on the TV,” Castillo said with a shrug. “But at least there’s better discounts here than in Mexico.”