ERCOT expects to meet winter demand
Officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said in a report Tuesday that they believe the state’s power grid will have more than enough generation to meet demand this winter, but laid out several scenarios that could push the grid into emergency conditions.
In ERCOT’S seasonal assessment of power supply and demand, officials said peak electricity demand is expected to reach 67,398 megawatts, based on peak demand for the winters of 2007 through 2021. Including 2021 in average assessment increased the peak demand forecast, ERCOT said, but it is still far short of the 77,000 megawatts of demand during the 2021 freeze.
One megawatt is enough to power about 200 homes on a hot summer day.
Should demand rise as high as during the winter storm, but with normal unplanned outages and renewable energy output, ERCOT would likely have to ask consumers to conserve electricity and prepare for possible emergency conditions. ERCOT could issue conservation notices under two other scenarios: if peak load exceeded that of 2021 freeze or if peak load similar to that during the 2021 freeze was accompanied by a large number
of unplanned outages at coal or natural gas plants.
But under a scenario in which demand is high, several power plants are knocked offline and electricity output from wind generators is low, ERCOT would likely have to order utility providers to institute rolling blackouts, according to the report. The rolling blackouts would be less severe than those ordered during the 2021 freeze, which contributed to the deaths of at least 200 people.
At a press conference Tuesday afternoon, new ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said that represented a “very low probability scenario.”
“It is important to address the fact that in this scenario with extreme conditions, there could be enough power,” he said. “But the fact the possibility exists calls out a need that needs to be met. We need to redesign the market to make sure there is enough generation so there is enough power.”
The Public Utility Commission, under orders from the state Legislature, has been working for nearly a year and a half on redesigning ERCOT’S wholesale power market. The commission expects to present a proposal to the Legislature by the start of the 2023 session in January.
But even in absence of the new market rules, PUC Chairman Peter Lake said enough action has been taken to stave off the types of unplanned outages seen in February 2021. He pointed to new winterization standards and ERCOT inspections, a new requirement that power generators keep enough fuel on site to provide 3,000 megawatts and paying to bring more generation online sooner.
Tuesday’s report doesn’t account for many of those reforms, especially in extreme scenarios, Lake said.
Those changes have already kept the grid out of emergency conditions at least eight times since they were instituted, he said, including during cold fronts last winter and during this summer’s record-breaking heat.