Historically, the hottest part is behind us
Give yourself a pat on the back. San Antonio has made its way through the peak of summer, and if history is any guide, average high temperatures will start to drop on Saturday and will continue falling day by day as we move toward fall and winter.
What is the ‘peak’?
The “peak” of summer refers to the historically hottest part of the season. According to 30-year climate data recorded at San Antonio International Airport, summertime high temperatures peak from Aug. 5-11. That’s when average high temperatures climb to 96.9 degrees, the hottest average of the year. Starting on Saturday, those historical averages start to decrease.
The decline will be very slow at first. Average high temps fall just one-tenth of a degree on Saturday, to 96.8 degrees. True, a tenth of a degree doesn’t make a ton of difference in the day-today weather right now, but it’s a landmark that means the worst of summer is behind us.
It won’t be long before the average high temperature declines at a much faster rate. By the end of August, average highs will be down to 93.7 degrees. It’s true that temperatures can be very hot in September, but average highs will drop nearly seven degrees, to 86.8 by the end of the month.
The average high temperature in San Antonio bottoms out at 62.6 degrees from Jan. 4-10. During that coldest part of the year, average low temperatures get down to 40.5 degrees, but that is still about five months away.
Saturday’s forecast
Lately, Mother Nature has not cared what the “average” high temperature has been in San Antonio. Instead, we’ve seen record high temperatures during the first half of August, and that extreme heat will continue Saturday.
The day will start abnormally warm, with a morning low of 80 degrees at around 7 am. Still, this will be the best time to be outside, as a fast warm-up is expected once again. Temperatures will reach 90 degrees before
11 a.m. and will soar past the century mark by 2 p.m.
Temperatures are expected to top out near 106 degrees in San Antonio.
If that forecast is accurate, it would be the 14th day in a row that the mercury has hit 100 degrees and the seventh day in a row with readings of at least 105 degrees. The record for the date, set in 1969, is 104 degrees, and that record likely will fall.
Moisture, but no rain
Thanks to southerly winds from the Gulf of Mexico, there will be plenty of moisture in South Texas as dew points stay near 70 in the afternoon.
Unfortunately, the moisture won’t translate to rain because a strong high-pressure system is overhead. Instead, the moisture levels will cause oppressive “feels-like” temperatures rising to 110 degrees.
Chances of rain will improve only when the high pressure shifts away from Texas. It is expected to move slightly westward by the middle of next week.
Unfortunately, it won’t be a lot of movement, so chances for pop-up showers and storms will be only around 10 percent.
It’s not much, but at this point, we’ll take what we can get.