Unusually warm February provides a glimpse of summer

After the past few years, Texans often cringe at the thought of cold weather in February. This year, the chill has not quite lived up to expectations, and the Lone Star State has enjoyed relatively warm weather over the past few weeks.

All across the state, February temperatures are the warmest they have been since 2017.

Through Feb. 22, the average high temp in San Antonio has been 69.6 degrees.

In addition, temperatures are expected to be even warmer during the last week of the month, likely resulting in a February that’s among the Alamo City’s top 15 warmest of all time.

The same is true for other Texas cities.

Austin has similar average highs in the upper 60s. Houston has averaged over 71 degrees for the first three weeks of the month.

When incorporating the current forecast for the next seven days, Dallas is on track to have a February among the top five warmest ever.

Overall, this month has felt more like spring than what Texans have gotten accustomed to in February.

So, does this early start to spring mean that a record-hot summer is in store?

Or are they not connected at all?

We looked at the numbers, and here’s what we found.

Crunching the numbers

We looked through San Antonio’s weather records and found the warmest months of February in the past 100 years.

Then, we checked to see what the temperatures were the following summer and looked for any correlation.

For the purposes of this exercise, we only counted the top 25 warmest months of February.

By the time February 2024 is over, it’s almost guaranteed to be within that range.

The results may surprise you. Out of those 25 years with a warm February, above-average temperatures were recorded in 18 of the ensuing summers. That’s 72% of the time.

The year 2009 especially sticks out. February was the secondwarmest on record that year, and the following summer was also the second-hottest of all time.

So does that mean a warm February actually increases the likelihood of an especially hot summer?

Not necessarily. From a meteorological perspective, it does not make a whole lot of sense.

Temperatures in February should not make much of a difference to temperatures in the summertime.

There are many other factors at play. Then again, it’s hard to argue with how the numbers have played out.

Summer’s outlook

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook for meteorological summer, above-average conditions are favored for the entire state of Texas. In looking at their numbers, the agency says San Antonio has a 77% chance of having near-average to above-average summer temperatures. They also cite a 23% chance of below-average temperatures this coming summer.

So when you put it all together, it does not paint a pretty picture for the type of summer Texas is about to see. Will we set a record like we did in 2023? Probably not. But if you were hoping for a break from the intense heat, that doesn’t seem very likely this year.