Injuries, bullpen woes take toll
Stagnant offense, patchwork pitching staff at root of worst start since 2016
HOUSTON — A team with title aspirations is off to an abysmal start. The Astros are 6-14 for the first time since 2016. They languish eight games under .500 for the first time since May of that season, the last in which they missed the playoffs prior to the franchise’s dynastic run.
It is, perhaps, early to declare that in peril. But at 20 games, the Astros hardly resemble the contender they are constructed to be. A team that returned most of last year’s ALCS roster and toted the majors’ fifthhighest payroll into this season owns the second-worst record in the American League.
“It’s not ideal,” first-year manager Joe Espada said Wednesday after his team was swept by the Braves. “It’s not what we expected — that we’d come out of the chute playing this type of baseball. But you know what? This is where we’re at. We’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
The Astros were swept in three of their first six series, opening with 20 games in 21 days. They won four of seven meetings with the defending champion Rangers and two of three games against Toronto. They were swept in four games by the Yankees and in threegame series by Atlanta and Kansas City.
“Obviously, I think we need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”
Houston’s minus-23 run differential is the second worst in the American League, ahead of only an awful White Sox team that already has been shut out six times. Its pitching staff has a 5.24 ERA, highest among AL teams, offsetting an offense that is tied for the league lead in team OPS (.769) but has struggled at times to deliver timely hits. Injuries have been a factor, but so has ineffectiveness.
“I think guys here know that we need to execute better,” Bregman said, “and play better as a team in all facets of the game.”
Recent history suggests they are capable. The Astros open an eight-game road trip Friday that includes three games against the rebuilding Nationals, three with the above-.500 Cubs and two in Mexico City against the Nl-worst Rockies. Whether they can quell several early concerns on it remains to be seen. Here are five elements of the Astros’ slow start and their outlook:
Starting rotation woes
On March 5, the Astros announced Justin Verlander would begin the season on the injured list. By March 18, it was clear José Urquidy would, too. The Astros looked at then-free agent Blake Snell but opted not to fortify their rotation with an outside addition before opening day. Espada and general manager Dana Brown both professed confidence in the team’s existing starting depth.
Framber Valdez landing on the IL with elbow inflammation after two starts was impossible to predict but made the decision look more questionable. With J.P. France and Ronel Blanco already in the rotation, it required Houston to tap into unproven depth. Top pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti made two starts in an accelerated debut. Minor leaguer Blair Henley made an ill-fated spot start on short notice.
After 20 games, Astros starters own a combined 5.05 ERA, the fourth-highest mark in the majors. Blanco, with an 0.86 ERA in three starts, has been a savior, and Cristian Javier owns a 1.54 ERA in four starts. They are the exceptions. Hunter Brown has a 10.54 ERA in four starts. France has a 7.08 ERA in four outings. Arrighetti, in two starts, allowed nine runs in seven innings.
Houston has received seven quality starts, three from Blanco. In eight games, its starter has worked less than five innings. An awful five-game stretch from April 8-12 in which the starters totaled 131⁄3 innings and allowed 31 earned runs taxed the bullpen heavily. Astros starters are averaging the second-most walks per nine innings in the majors (4.37) and the fourth-fewest strikeouts (7.63).
Was it avoidable? Snell ended up signing a two-year, $62 million contract with the Giants with an opt-out after one season. Astros special advisor Reggie Jackson, on a recent New York Post podcast, deemed the deal for Snell “too much” and said of the Astros: “We don’t play that game.” Other veteran starters were available in midmarch, such as Michael Lorenzen, who signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with Texas.
Reinforcement appears on its way. Verlander is scheduled to make his season debut Friday at Washington. The Astros believe Valdez could rejoin them on the upcoming road trip. Both should help stabilize the rotation, though there remains some question of how Verlander, 41, will fare at first returning from an offseason shoulder issue and whether Valdez is entirely past his elbow soreness.
For Blanco to sustain his current pace is improbable. Javier’s first four starts are encouraging as he tries to rebound from last year’s secondhalf struggles. But even after Verlander returns, the Astros’ rotation construction means the supporting cast must do more.
Late-inning struggles
Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu were assembled to lock down the late innings of games. The strategy has yet to achieve any rhythm. The trio has appeared together in three of 20 games, all losses. Houston has one save in six opportunities. Its pitching staff has a 5.79 ERA in innings seven though nine. That isn’t entirely due to the back-end trio, but each of the three has delivered multiple rough outings.
Five of the Astros’ losses are in games they led after five innings. They led in one of those games after the fifth inning, two after the sixth, one after the seventh and one after the eighth. In four of the five, one of Abreu, Pressly or Hader was charged with a blown save or a loss.
Hader, the closer signed to a five-year, $95 million deal in the offseason, has pitched in 10 games. Just two were save opportunities, and he blew one by allowing a go-ahead home run. He has been scored upon in four of 10 outings, for an 8.31 ERA, but has alternated those with flashes of dominance, like a ninth-inning appearance Wednesday in which he struck out the side.
In a small sample, Hader’s strikeout and whiff rates are similar to last season, and he is inducing a high rate of ground balls. Hitters have made some hard contact — nine of 19 batted balls in play against him had exit velocities above 95 mph — but all were singles except the home run Toronto’s Davis Schneider hit on a centered slider. Hader said recently his mechanics might be a bit off, but his velocity is normal.
Pressly has been scored upon in four of eight outings. He has entered just three games with the Astros leading, however, and preserved the lead twice. His ERA is 9.45. Abreu, too, has entered three games with a lead. He gave up a two-run lead in his season debut March 30 but has been scored upon in just one of eight appearances since. His ERA is 6.00.
Hader has inherited a lead in just three of 10 outings. More often, the Astros have used their highest-leverage relievers to try to preserve a tie or keep a deficit close. The issue here is twofold. Each of the trio has a track record that suggests his early struggles are aberrant. To use the blueprint they built to secure wins, meanwhile, the Astros must hand the back end of their bullpen more leads to protect.
Roster construction
The Astros lost more than 200 innings from last season’s bullpen via free-agent departures and injury. The signing of Hader, to the largest free-agent deal awarded under owner Jim Crane, marked the extent of their offseason spending on pitching, as Brown touted internal candidates to complete the bullpen and fortify the rotation.
Rotation injuries and inefficiency in the first 20 games illustrated how tenuous that could be. Struggles from a thinned rotation placed an outsized workload on the Astros’ cadre of middle relievers. Houston relievers have totaled 79 innings, most among AL teams. Seth Martinez and Brandon Bielak have borne the heaviest brunt, with Rafael Montero and Tayler Scott also pressed into regular action.
Their early burden is unsustainable. The need to mitigate it led the Astros to cycle through a series of relievers for coverage and left Espada and his staff to fall back at times to a last defense. Five pitchers made one outing before being sent out. The Astros used 22 pitchers, including one position player, in their first 20 games. They used 24 pitchers, including two position players, all of last season.
Martinez and Scott, notably, have pitched well and seized early roles. Martinez has a 2.25 ERA in nine outings. Scott, who made the team as a non-roster invitee to spring training, has a 1.93 ERA over nine appearances. Montero has a 1.80 ERA in 10 outings. Houston would welcome a rebound by Montero, who posted a 5.08 ERA last season in the first year of a three-year, $34.5 million deal.
Verlander’s return should, at least, give the Astros a starter they can rely on to consume innings. Valdez offers the same profile. Overall, the rotation must shoulder a larger workload to prevent burnout of the current middle relief corps so early in the season.
A mercurial lineup
Aside from Jose Altuve, who opened the season on a tear, the Houston offense has been uneven. It leads the AL in batting average (.268) and is tied for first in OPS (.769) with Baltimore’s. It also ranks seventh in runs per game (4.35), reflecting in part a middling average and OPS with runners in scoring position.
Altuve is authoring possibly the best opening month of his career. He has a .388 average and an 1.137 OPS that ranks second among qualified AL hitters, behind only Boston’s Tyler O’neill. Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, who has a .912 OPS, have formed the daunting 1-2 punch atop the lineup that Espada envisioned when he moved Alvarez up to the second spot this spring.
Kyle Tucker has a team-high 15 RBIS, having hit mostly third after Altuve and Alvarez. Bregman has driven in just four runs, despite starting 16 games in the cleanup spot, amid a slow start. Bregman is slashing .250/ .333/.328 with no home runs in 64 plate appearances. Espada moved him to the third spot Wednesday, ahead of Tucker, in an alignment that might stick. Bregman reached base four times.
Early returns from Jeremy Peña’s offseason swing changes are encouraging, as he is slugging .456. Other regulars have been inconsistent. Yainer Diaz, who has hit mostly in the fifth spot, is batting .293 but is 4for-19 with men in scoring position. Chas Mccormick is in a 4-for-30 skid. José Abreu is batting .078 and has ceded more playing time at first base to Jon Singleton.
Two men cannot carry the offense. The Astros entered Wednesday ranked second in OPS from the 1-2 lineup spots and 18th from the 3-6 spots. The potency is there, but their first two losses to Atlanta showed how different facets of the club have faltered in turn, as they totaled three runs in games that stayed close until the ninth inning. They have scored 48 runs in their six wins and 39 runs in 14 losses.
First-base conundrum
Abreu’s struggles are not a leading cause of Houston’s start, but the Astros’ record has shone a brighter spotlight on his miserable April. Abreu owns an .078/.158/.098 slash line with one extra-base hit, a double, in 57 plate appearances. His average exit velocity is a careerlow 86.5 mph, and he acknowledged this month his timing at the plate is off and he is lacking confidence.
Espada started Abreu in the fifth lineup spot on opening day and has since moved him down to eighth, the first time the 37-year-old has hit that low in his 11 major league seasons. Singleton started three of the last seven games at first base and pinch-hit for Abreu late in a tied game Wednesday. Singleton is 8-for-32 (.250) this season. No team has received a lower OPS from its first basemen than the Astros.
The sample size for Abreu is still small yet comes on the heels of his disappointing 2023 season, the first under the three-year, $58.5 million deal he signed with Houston while Crane was overseeing baseball operations. Abreu surged last September and in the playoffs. Yet his early struggles at the plate and on defense (minus-3 runs saved, per Sports Info Solutions) have already reduced his playing time.
Whether the Astros would consider a more drastic change is unclear, and the prospect of absorbing the nearly two full years left on his deal is surely unappealing. Espada and Dana Brown have publicly cited “the back of (Abreu’s) baseball card” as a source of optimism that Abreu can turn things around. Abreu, a respected veteran, is said to be working diligently to try to regain his swing.
Houston, in the interim, might not have another clearcut option at first base. Singleton is a .175 hitter in his major league career. At Triple-a, the Astros have hot-hitting prospect Joey Loperfido, who through Tuesday led all of Minor League Baseball with 10 home runs, playing more first base, perhaps gauging his readiness at the position. Abreu could calm concerns by starting to hit. If he doesn’t, the Astros might eventually face a difficult decision.