History shows bad start can be overcome

The 50-game mark of a baseball season is a good time to take stock of where your team stands. That was the thought in 2005 when the Houston Chronicle prematurely laid that baseball season to rest with a tombstone that read: “RIP Astros’ season. April 5, 2005 — June 1, 2005.”

The copy of that story was written when the team was 18-32. The Astros beat the Reds that night, so when the newspaper hit driveways in the morning, the team actually was 19-32. Astros fans know the rest of the story: The team rallied and played .634 baseball the rest of the way, finishing 89-73 and making it all the way to the franchise’s first World Series, where it was swept by the Chicago White Sox.

At 22-28, the current Astros are four games ahead of that group’s pace, which is a good sign. However, the 2005 Astros are the only team in the franchise’s 63year history to play below .500 baseball in the first 50 games of a season and still make the playoffs. This is the first time the Astros have been under .500 at this point in the season since the 2016 team — the only group of Astros to miss the playoffs in the past 10 years — opened the season 21-29.

However, league-wide trends are much more encouraging. Eight of the past 19 World Series have featured a team that was below .500 after the first 50 games. Astros fans are extremely familiar with two of those squads: The 2019 Washington Nationals and 2021 Atlanta Braves, who both went on to top the Astros for a championship.

Here’s a look at the recent history of turnarounds for teams that started poorly in their first 50 games:

2005 Astros (18-32)

Like the current Astros team, this squad was loaded with talent, including starting pitchers Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt, as well as position players Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg. After the Chronicle’s tombstone cover, the Astros posted baseball’s best record from June 1 to the end of the regular season, going 70-41. They clinched a wild card spot on the final day of the season and knocked off the Braves and Cardinals en route to the World Series.

2007 Rockies (23-27)

This Rockies team appeared dead in the water much of the season. They were 76-72 with just a little more than two weeks remaining when they won 13 of their final 14 games to get into a tiebreaker for the Wild Card spot. They beat the Padres in 13 innings in Game 163, then swept both the Phillies and Diamondbacks to head into the World Series having won 21-of-22 games before the Red Sox swept them in the World Series.

2012 Tigers (23-27)

Just like this Astros team, the Justin Verlanderled Tigers entered the season with high hopes after losing to the Texas Rangers in the previous year’s American League Championship Series. The Tigers didn’t reach .500 until the end of July but turned it on enough to go 88-74 and win the AL Central by three games. They barely beat the A’s in the ALDS and swept the Yankees in the ALCS before being swept by the Giants in the World Series.

2014 Royals (24-26)

This was the first Royals team to make the postseason since 1985, and they did it with a strong closing stretch. The Royals still were below .500 as late as July 22, but a players-only meeting sparked a 25-9 stretch. The Royals grabbed a Wild Card spot with an 89-73 record, then beat Oakland in the Wild Card game and swept both the Angels and Orioles to reach the World Series, where they lost to the Giants in seven games.

2018 Dodgers (23-27)

Fresh off losing to the Astros in the 2017 World Series, the Dodgers got off to a terrible start, going 16-26 in their first 42 games but then played .628 baseball the rest of the way to finish 92-71 and win the National League West on a tiebreaker game over the Rockies. The Dodgers beat the Braves in the NLDS, then survived a seven-game NLCS against the Brewers before losing the World Series to the Red Sox in five games.

2019 Nationals (19-31)

The Nationals team led by Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and a 20-year-old Juan Soto got off to a putrid start, but turned things around in June, going 18-8 for the month. Things really took off in the second half though, with the Nationals going 46-27 and finishing 93-69. They beat the Brewers in a Wild Card game, upset the Dodgers in the NLDS and swept the Cardinals in the NLCS before taking out the Astros in a seven-game World Series.

2021 Braves (24-26)

The Braves got off to a mediocre start and remained mired in mediocrity most of the season, never reaching .500 until August. Even as the team struggled, general manager Alex Anthopoulos traded for the likes of Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall at the end of July. The Braves went 13-2 for a stretch in August and finished atop the National League East at 88-73 (one rainout was not made up). After beating the Dodgers and Brewers in the playoffs, they took out the Astros in six games for the title.

2022 Phillies (21-29)

The Phillies ripped off 10 straight wins after Game No. 50, which also coincided with the firing of manager Joe Girardi. The team went on a 40-19 run after replacing Girardi with Rob Thomson. The team finished 87-75. That was enough for a Wild Card spot, which the Phillies took advantage of by taking out the Cardinals, Braves and Padres before losing to the Astros in the World Series.