San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
Levin, other Dems face more hurdles than in 2018
Rep. Mike Levin might not exactly be a Democratic firewall in the face of a Republican push to retake the House majority, but for a first-term incumbent in a crucial swing district, he’s looking pretty good at the moment.
“At the moment” is the operative phrase, given the general election is a little more than eight months away and the Democratic presidential nomination is still up in the air.
None of that has prevented some Democratic leaders from flipping out over the possibility of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at the top of the party’s ticket and the potential of him not just losing the presidential race, but bringing House Democrats down with him.
Much can change in favor of Republican Brian Maryott, a San Juan Capistrano city council member and Levin’s likely Republican opponent in November. But while the Republican Party is making a concerted effort to win back most, if not all, of the seven California congressional seats it lost in 2018, Maryott right now does not appear to be among the priority candidates.
Still, Levin and other Democrats are running in a more challenging environment than they did in 2018, regardless of who wins their party’s presidential nomination.
Trump’s overall approval rating remains low — especially in California — as it has throughout his first term. He clearly energized Democrats in the previous election and they’ll be motivated by him again this fall. But unlike in 2018, he’ll be on the ballot and that will increase Republican turnout.
A lot has been made about the surging Democratic blue wave in 2018, but it wasn’t all it was cracked up to be. In some of the seven Republican seats that Democrats flipped, it wasn’t so much a higher Democratic turnout as a dearth of Republicans casting ballots that may have made the difference. That was the conclusion of a statistical analysis by John Myers of the Los Angeles Times in December 2018.
Currently, Levin seems better positioned for reelection than his fellow first-term California Democrats in formerly Republican districts.
The Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, concludes Levin’s 49th District is “likely” to remain in Democratic hands. According to the report, the likely ranking means districts “are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged.”
Interestingly, only one
other of the seven districts is given that status: the 25th District vacated by Katie Hill, who resigned last fall when revelations surfaced that she had an affair with a campaign aide and, allegedly, a congressional staffer. Nude photos of Hill also had been published.
Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith and former GOP Rep. Steve Knight, who lost to Hill, are considered the front-runners in the northern Los Angeles County district, which has a larger Democratic voter registration than most of those other districts.
Cook considers the other five seats to be “leaning” Democratic, which denotes a Democratic advantage in a competitive race.
There were some very close elections in those districts, but Levin’s was not one of them. He won the 49th, which straddles the San Diego and Orange County line, by nearly 14 percentage points over Republican Diane Harkey, who was the GOP choice going into the 2018 primary over several other Republicans. He was the only one of the seven Democratic winners to post a double-digit victory.
Hillary Clinton won the 49th by more than seven points over Donald Trump in 2016.
Levin’s strength and Harkey’s weakness — even some Republicans openly criticized her fundraising performance — defined the election. The Republican Party basically gave up on her weeks before the election in what was supposed to be a hotly contested race for an open seat. Longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa decided not to run for re-election following polls that showed he was likely to lose.
But that was then. Unlike last time, the GOP essentially cleared the Republican primary field, giving Maryott a clear shot at November. He has also raised around $1 million, though that includes hundreds of thousands of dollars in his own contributions and loans. Levin has raised twice as much, with no personal infusion of funds.
The Los Angeles Times recently published a story about the GOP’S California congressional effort, which included an interview with state party chair Jessica Millan Patterson, that concluded “Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in San Juan Capistrano appears likely to get by without a serious challenge.”
Nevertheless, Maryott was named one of the GOP’S “Young Guns — Contenders,” which isn’t an age designation but the party’s acknowledgment that a candidate’s campaign has met certain organizational and fundraising metrics. That could put him in position to receive considerable institutional party support, depending on how things shake out as November approaches.
Maryott has been trying to make the case that Levin is a liberal who is out of touch with the district and supports “socialist” programs such as Medicare-for-all and the Green New Deal.
Levin got an immediate post-election boost from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who put him on environmental and veterans committees. She also made him chairman of the Veterans Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity. He has successfully advanced legislation aimed at assisting veterans and protecting the environment, some with bipartisan support.
The expectation has always been the Republican Party would be gunning for him in 2020.
Come the fall campaign, Levin may have to deal with sharing the ballot with a self-described democratic socialist. He has not yet endorsed a presidential candidate. Some people think Democratic fears of Sanders losing both the presidential race and the House majority are overblown, noting that polls have him defeating Trump nationally and in some pivotal states.
Demographics may have shifted the 49th District from red to purple, but it couldn’t be called a liberal bastion. Having to defend a controversial presidential candidate, or having to explain your differences with him, is not an enviable position to be in.
Just ask some of the former GOP incumbents.
Tweet of the Week
Goes to Rachel Laing (@Rachellaing), communications specialist and lobbyist.
“I’m old enough to remember when Republicans nominating Trump was the Dems’ sure ticket to the White House.”
michael.smolens @sduniontribune.com