RUNOFF RACES IN DISTRICTS 5, 7 TO DETERMINE COUNCIL

Contests could result in 8-1 Democratic majority

The strength of the Democratic majority on San Diego’s City Council will come down to two old-fashioned Republican-versusdemocrat runoffs on the November ballot.

The outcomes of the two races, in suburban districts 5 and 7, will determine whether Democrats can increase their six-vote majority on the nine-member council to either 7-2 or possibly even 8-1.

The two races are expected to attract the lion’s share of campaign contributions this fall, as labor unions and progressive groups try to boost the Democratic majority, while business interests and conservatives try to prevent that.

While conservative groups are expected to devote considerable resources to helping Republican Kristin Gaspar retain her District 3 county supervisor seat, political consultants say these two San Diego council races are likely to be next in priority.

“These will be hard fought because there’s a big opportunity for Democrats,” said Dan Rottenstreich, a leading local consultant. “Voters will have clear choices between two different ways of approaching the city’s problems.”

Conservative groups and donors have already signaled their keen interest in the two races, by making the Republican candidates in both of them the two leading recipients of campaign contributions across all five council races this year.

The two races will feature

Democrat Raul Campillo versus Republican Noli Zosa in District 7, and Democrat Marni von Wilpert versus Republican Joe Leventhal in District 5.

District 7, now represented by Republican Scott Sherman, includes Mission Valley, Linda Vista, Allied Gardens, Del Cerro, Tierrasanta, San Carlos and nearby neighborhoods.

District 5, now represented by Republicanturned-independent Mark Kersey, includes Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch, Carmel Mountain Ranch, Sabre Springs and the northern part of Rancho Penasquitos.

Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in District 7, 36,857 to 23,908 through March 2. The district also has 24,116 voters who declined to state a party affiliation.

The margin is much smaller in District 5, which had been a Republican stronghold for years before flipping Democratic last fall. Democrats now outnumber Republicans 33,089 to 30,542, with 28,671 decline-to-state voters.

And Tuesday’s primary results — which won’t be complete until another few hundred thousand late-arriving votes are counted in coming days — also appear to indicate that the two Democrats may have the edge in November. In District 7, Campillo leads Zosa by more than 1,500 votes even though Zosa was the only Republican in the race, and Campillo was competing with two other Democrats — Wendy Wheatcroft and Monty Mcintyre.

The percentage of District 7 voters who chose a Democrat was more than 69 percent, leaving Zosa with just under 31 percent of the vote.

In District 5, von Wilpert leads Leventhal by 583 votes, with 39.8 percent of the vote compared to 38.05 percent for Leventhal. But Democrat Issac Wang got more than 18 percent, while the fourth candidate — Republican Simon Moghadam — got only 4 percent.

Leventhal said after the primary that it would be unwise to conclude that most of Wang’s supporters will choose von Wilpert in the runoff.

Wang is a military officer and a business owner, the kind of candidate that conservative voters typically choose, Leventhal said.

“A lot of his votes are available for me to get,” he said. “I’m not taking anyone’s vote for granted, but I think those votes are up for grabs.”

Leventhal said another factor was the hotly contested Democratic primary, which boosted turnout among Democrats. In contrast, some Republicans chose not to vote because President Trump has locked up that party’s nomination.

Leventhal also noted that he has $132,000 in campaign money left over from the primary, while von Wilpert only has $35,000.

Von Wilpert said she believes her lead is the result of voter confidence in her and an aggressive effort to visit residents door-to-door.

“I think it’s because we have done the work,” she said. “I’ve knocked on over 12,000 doors.” She also rejected characterization of the race as an old-school battle between a Democrat and a Republican.

“The whole theme of my campaign is putting people over politics,” she said. “For me it’s not about politics; it’s about engaging the community. I know the district — I grew up there.”

During the rest of the campaign, von Wilpert said she plans to focus on environmental issues, homelessness and gun control.

Leventhal said he thinks there are key differences between the candidates on many issues for voters to consider. He said an example is allowing dense housing projects in single-family neighborhoods, which von Wilpert supports more enthusiastically than Leventhal.

“I think it’s going to be about the same things it’s been about already,” he said. “I really respect her a lot, but we have some real policy differences.”

In District 7, Zosa agreed with Leventhal that the results in the primary were somewhat skewed by the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

“It was tough to turn Republicans out because there was less reason for them to turn out based on the presidential primary,” he said. “I’m looking for the Republicans to come out in November and make it a lot more competitive.”

Zosa said the race will clearly be a choice between a traditional Democrat and a traditional Republican but stressed that he needs to reach out beyond Republican voters. “I can’t just win with Republicans, but I’m fortunate to have strong bipartisan support from liberal Democrats to conservative Republicans and everything in between,” he said. “People don’t want that polarizing atmosphere where people don’t get along together.”

Campillo said he was pleased with his comfortable first-place finish in the primary.

“I am a bit surprised, because when you have three Democrats and one Republican you expect the Republican to come out on top,” he said. “I think the reason I finished first is that I reached out to both the independents and the Republicans. We did not ignore anybody.”

While Zosa has been a community leader for more than two decades, Campillo noted that he has local connections, including being a graduate of Linda Vista’s University of San Diego High School before it moved to Carmel Valley.

Campillo said he plans to focus on housing and homelessness because those are the two biggest challenges facing the city, and because they are what voters care about most.

Zosa said he plans to focus on those issues but also some topics that typically spur more ideological differences, such as creating bike lanes to help fight climate change and traffic congestion.

Zosa has $103,000 in campaign money left from the primary, while Campillo has $68,000.