San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
SCHEDULE WEIGHS ON PADRES, MLB
Number of games in 2020 among big issues to address
Baseball is on hold at least another seven weeks, and that is a best-case scenario.
Major League Baseball on Monday said it would adhere to a recommendation by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention that no gathering larger than 50 people be held for at least eight weeks to help stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.
The MLB release said it remains “committed to playing as many games as possible when the season begins.”
What is possible?
At this point, anything. Except for this: It is virtually certain the 2020 season will be the first in 25 years to comprise fewer than 162 games. MLB played 144 games in 1995 when the season began April 25, three weeks late, due to the work stoppage that also forced cancellation of the 1994 World Series.
Some in the game acknowledged as early as last week, when MLB initially suspended spring training and delayed the start of the season at least two weeks, that a cancellation of the season could not be ruled out. The unknowns sur
rounding the virus make timelines impossible to predict.
In a White House news conference Monday, President Donald Trump and others suggested social distancing measures could be in effect until midsummer, or later.
Two people familiar with discussions between MLB and its players’ union said a major concern is some cities won’t be able to host large gatherings until well after others deem it safe. The resumption of play, one of the sources said, will be based on the status of the “worst city.”
Those two people said there are more pressing issues than scheduling, such as myriad matters having to do with player compensation. And while cautioning any talk of when the season will begin is little more than speculation at this point, those sources said start dates around the beginning of June and July have been discussed.
But even if we choose to believe in the best-case scenario and assume baseball can lumber to life after eight weeks, there are multiple challenges to work through.
First, eight weeks from last Monday is May 11, so let’s presume that is the first day teams could congregate, in that it takes far more than 50 people to conduct a spring training.
From the outset, players and others in the game theorized that a second “spring training” of 10 days or so would be necessary once players departed spring training sites, which happened en masse this past week. But such a short camp before opening day is somewhat dependent on players being able to continue their workouts in the meantime. Stay-at-home orders such as the one California Gov. Gavin Newsom decreed Thursday night could complicate that aim.
As of Friday, the Padres were attempting to get word whether their plan to allow players to work out at Petco Park beginning Monday is allowed under the new mandate.
“Were going day by day,” Padres General Manager A.J. Preller said. “We’ll see what happens for (this) week. I’m anticipating yes.”
Not getting back to doing baseball activities with their team until mid-may means players essentially had a second mini-offseason.
With a shutdown of a couple of months, as long as they were able to at least hit in the cage, hitters say they could need as few as 20 live at-bats to get their timing and rhythm back.
While Padres pitchers said this week their intention was to keep throwing regularly and keep stretched out to a capability of five innings, they will need to ramp up to get in game shape. The team is still working on a more precise plan — or rather, multiple different plans dependent on the length of the delay.
In this best-case scenario, going 10 days out from May 11 would mean a new opening day of May 21.
By that time, the Padres were scheduled to have played 50 games. Some teams were to have played 51. That provides a floor of 111 or 112 games if the season were to end the final weekend of September.
Even early last weekend, some at the management level believed a start date at the end of May or June 1 was likely. At that time, those people have wondered what the fewest number of games MLB could play.
“Is it 120? 100?” one baseball executive said. “I don’t think you can go below 100.”
But the floor is not the target as of now.
Eliminating the All-star Game and break, adding occasional doubleheaders and extending the season a week or two into October, could get the slate up to what would seem to be an absolute maximum of 135 or 140 games.
Owners, who depending on the market will lose about $1 million$1.5 million per home game in ticket and concession revenue in addition to diminished sponsorship and television monies, want to play as many games as possible. Players, who likely will be paid a pro-rated portion of their salaries based on the number of games that are played, have the same goal.
But it’s not as easy as just cramming as many games as possible into the available window.
The typical MLB schedule features an average of six games a week, with some weeks featuring five games and some seven.
While virtually everyone agrees rosters will be expanded by at least two players and possibly more, playing more games in a smaller window is a recipe for diminished performance and potential injury.
To get 130 or more games in 20 weeks would require weeks with no off-days and/or some with doubleheaders, almost certainly creating the need for teams to use a six-man starting rotation, at least sporadically. Even then, such a pace theoretically would require starters to go every five to six days for nearly five months. That’s 23 to 25 starts in 20 weeks.
Just 15 pitchers made 25 starts over the final 20 weeks of the 2019 season. Just 55 made 23 starts. And that was after a regular full spring training and most of them getting extra days off in April.
A need to manage virtually every starter’s workload in an unprecedented way would create the need for extra starters and extra relievers. A deep bullpen such as the Padres seem to possess, with not only several talented arms but multiple relievers who can go multiple innings, likely would be an advantage.
Depth in all facets of the game would help.
With the effects of frequent travel added to the demands of playing so many games, the “everyday” player is almost nonexistent in today’s MLB. Oakland A’s shortstop Marcus Semien was the only player to start 162 games last season. Just 33 players started at least 150 games, including Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer (156) and third baseman Manny Machado (154). The most anyone played over the final 20 weeks of the ’19 season was 123 games.
Shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 48 straight starts from June 16 to August 13 last season was the longest stretch on the Padres. New manager Jayce Tingler said in spring he did not envision a player enduring such a stretch this season.
The complicated and delicate connection of playing time and health could prompt baseball to conduct its truncated season at a more regular pace and settle on 120 games and expanded playoffs. MLB already had floated the idea of a larger playoff field being part of a new collective bargaining agreement that must be agreed upon following the 2021 season. This could be a forced test run.
Another complication MLB could run into as it reconfigures its schedule is ballpark availability. Many teams book other events when their team is on the road; the Padres have concerts booked in June, July and September at Petco Park.
With so many issues to work out and seemingly every issue having a subset of issues, at least the sport has time has time to figure out many of those issues.
“The only thing I know,” one executive said, “is that nobody knows.”