San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
‘Pandemic stamina’ is the response to ‘pandemic fatigue’
We’re in our ninth month of the literally life-altering adjustments that have been necessary to respond to the novel coronavirus pandemic, and unfortunately, the outlook isn’t good.
Infectious disease experts, health professionals and scientists have been warning about the likelihood of a massive surge in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19, and the number of deaths related to the virus. Just this past week, the U.S. recorded more than 100,000 cases in a single day, the highest single-day total, according to The Atlantic.
Last month, the percentage of people who were testing positive was already rising: Nationally, that number was averaging at 5.1 percent, and in more than a dozen states, it was above 10 percent, according to CNN.
“You’d like to see (the rates) less than 3 percent, optimally 1 percent or less,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, said at an event hosted by the College of American Pathologists, also according to CNN. “We’re starting to see a number of states well above that, which is often — in fact, invariably — highly predictive of a resurgence of cases, which historically we know leads to an increase in hospitalizations and then ultimately an increase in deaths.”
As we’re now into the fall season, and winter is approaching, these concerns are compounded by flu season, colder weather keeping more people indoors, and the kind of traveling and visiting that’s typical of the holiday season.
Dr. Eric Toner is a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, where most of his work over the past 16 years has been in policy research and advocacy related to health care preparedness for pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and other disasters. Before that, he spent 20 years in emergency room medicine and health care administration. He took some to talk about the surge for the fall and winter seasons, what’s contributing to it, and why it’s so concerning. (This interview has been edited for length and clarity.)
Q: Recent reports that positive test results and deaths from the novel coronavirus are on the rise have been disappointing but unsurprising as infectious disease experts have been warning about this possibility for some time. First, can you help us understand what’s contributing to this latest uptick in both deaths and cases of the virus?
A: Cases are rising because people are interacting more; schools and colleges, restaurants and bars, and other business have been reopening since the summer. Whenever people interact, the virus has the opportunity to spread. This is made much worse by some people not adhering to the actions that prevent transmission — namely, wearing masks, maintaining distance and avoiding crowded indoor spaces. There have also been a number of mass gatherings in the last few months that have resulted in large-scale outbreaks.
Deaths are a direct consequence of cases. The more cases there are, the more hospitalizations and deaths there will be. A rise in hospitalization follows a rise in cases by about three weeks and a rise in deaths lags cases by about a month.
Q: This fall/winter surge seems to be particularly worrisome. Why? What makes this worse and/or different than the summer surge?
A: The current surge is worrisome because it involves most of the country. The spring surge was mostly confined to New York and New England, the summer surge involved the Deep South and Sunbelt, now nearly every state is seeing rising cases, especially in the upper Plains, Mountain West, and upper Midwest. In some of these locations, the per-capita case counts are higher than they ever were in New York City. As we move into winter and there are fewer opportunities to be outdoors, cases will increase further unless we act to change the trajectory of the epidemic.
Q: Can you talk about “pandemic fatigue”? What it is, how it presents, and how to manage it?
A: “Pandemic fatigue” refers to the emotional exhaustion, frustration and impatience that most people are now feeling as we enter our ninth month of the pandemic in the U.S. People yearn for a return to normality. However, the virus doesn’t care. It will continue to spread whenever we let our guard down. The only antidote to “pandemic fatigue” is “pandemic stamina.” The pandemic will end, but not for many months. In fact, it will get worse before it gets better. There is no simple solution other than persistence.
Q: What do you think we need to be reminded of, about this virus, in order to prevent more deaths and a continued increase in cases?
A: Everyone has a moral and civic duty to do their part in fighting the virus. For some, it means putting their lives on the line by working in hospitals and nursing homes; for the rest of us, it means helping to slow the spread and flatten the curves by adhering to the actions that prevent spread. Even if an individual is not personally at high risk of serious illness, their actions affect the lives and livelihoods of the entire community. Wearing a mask, maintaining distance and avoiding indoor crowds are patriotic duties.