Coronavirus pits safety vs. tradition for holidays

It may seem hard to find good cheer during the coming holidays as warnings of a seasonal surge in COVID-19 cases cast a pall over the region.

Individuals are battling a sense of fatigue from pandemic guidelines, while business owners fight growing desperation now that they have been ordered to shut down indoor service once again.

The pull of the holidays is expected to be too strong even for many who have followed the rules, luring them into letting their guards down for gatherings they have previously avoided.

The simple advice, of course, is not to do that. But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention along with other experts say if you don’t, continue to follow the wellknown precautions — keep the groups small, wear masks when not eating and drinking, keep distancing, wash hands, and so forth. A big one, and here’s where San Diegans have an advantage, is do it outside.

Sure, the days are shorter and cooler. But this isn’t Minnesota. People can put on a layer or two and have Thanksgiving dinner and winter celebrations outside. Light a couple of tiki torches to give it a San Diego holiday feel.

Among the many things officials have learned — after they initially shut down beaches, parks and trails — is being outdoors is generally less risky than being indoors when it comes to contracting COVID-19. It should go without saying that it’s best to keep any gathering to the immediate household and have the extended party online with relatives and friends.

Since almost the beginning of the pandemic, experts warned of a winter wave of COVID-19 cases. The increase in cases that have dropped San Diego County into the most restrictive “purple tier” on the state’s coronavirus scale says winter has arrived early.

A lot of that has to do with too many people clinging to a bogus interpretation of individual freedom rather than exercising personal responsibility. What’s being asked is really pretty easy; the consequences of not abiding have been

coming months. It’s frustrating to even have to say that, given some 250,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and hundreds of thousands more may in the future. Several studies have projected how many lives can be saved, and how much economic loss can be avoided, if everyone wears a mask.

Businesses will be closing for good, jobs will be lost permanently, and people will be evicted because they can’t pay rent. Some of that might not happen if a lot of people just wise up.

Thanksgiving is less than two weeks away. The likelihood that traditional family holiday gatherings will make matters worse is great.

They did in Canada. COVID-19 cases north of the U.S. border flattened during the summer but were on the rise again in September, then surged after Oct. 12, when Canadians celebrated their Thanksgiving.

The post-thanksgiving increase may have been larger had some provinces not taken action, such as closing indoor dining and movie theaters around the time of the holiday, Dr. Matthew Oughton, assistant professor of medicine at Mcgill University, told Time magazine.

“Although we didn’t see a huge surge in the number of cases in Ontario and Quebec, what’s actually striking is that we didn’t see the decrease that you would have expected to see as a result of those lockdown measures,” he said.

A lot of people in the United States plan in-person Thanksgiving gatherings, according to a national survey by the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center. The vast majority of those expecting to congregate said they plan to put precautions in place, but “many will be putting themselves at risk.”

“Nearly two in five report they will likely attend a gathering with more than 10 people and a third will not ask guests to wear masks,” according to the survey.

Almost any gathering comes with a risk, although the odds of someone who is COVID-19 positive attending can vary greatly by region. That can be assessed through the “COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool,” an interactive map of the United States created by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and Stanford University.

In San Diego County, for instance, there’s an 8 percent chance that a gathering of 10 people will include one who is positive. In parts of the Dakotas, where the virus is has spread widely, there’s a nearly 100 percent chance that one individual at a 10-person event will be infected, according to an analysis of the map tool by Wired magazine.

There have been and will be plenty of admonitions to ratchet down the size, though hopefully not the intensity, of celebrations. But if people are already fatigued by months of restrictions, they’ll get fed up with constant warnings throughout the holidays.

In contemplating what to do, it might be wise for people to look ahead to possible post-holiday guilt, and not just about eating and drinking too much.

“It’s not the same thing as being able to see (family members) and hug them in person, but then again,” Oughton said, “I wouldn’t want to have a nice Thanksgiving and then find out two weeks later that one of them landed in the hospital.”

The holidays don’t have to be a complete downer. Perhaps we can enjoy this most unusual of holiday seasons by celebrating that we’re helping keep distant loved ones safe — by staying away.

Besides, think of the side benefit: Not having to talk politics with the in-laws.

Tweet of the Week

Goes to Jack Pitney (@jpitney), political science professor at Claremont Mckenna College and a former research director for the National Republican Committee.

“Like burning the American flag, tweeting bogus charges of vote fraud is constitutionally protected speech. Like burning the American flag, it is also unpatriotic.”