San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
WCC MAY BE BEST LEAGUE IN WEST
Conference is not just Gonzaga, it’s solid top to bottom
Three thoughts on No. 18 San Diego State’s 72-62 loss against BYU on Friday afternoon at Viejas Arena:
1. Best in the West
The Aztecs have one of the toughest nonconference schedules in school history. They do, less because two games are against the Pac-12 than three are against the West Coast Conference. The WCC?
Let’s go to the numbers. The Mountain West has four nonconference wins this season against teams from power conferences, which in basketball constitutes football’s Power 5 plus the Big East.
The Pac-12 also has four.
The WCC has eight.
Against teams ranked in the top 100 of the Ken- pom.com metric, the Mountain West is 4-11. The Pac-12 is 7-11. The WCC is 1110.
SDSU was BYU’S fourth win against a top 100 team, or as many as the entire Mountain West. Pepperdine, picked to finish fourth in the WCC, had the Aztecs down 16 in the second half at Viejas Arena, beat Cal and took UCLA to triple overtime. Next up for the Aztecs is a Tuesday game against Saint Mary’s, who is picked third and 8-1 after beating Colorado State on Saturday.
USF, picked fifth, beat Virginia. Santa Clara, picked sixth, is 6-0. Loyola Marymount, picked seventh, lost by only three at Minnesota. USD, picked ninth, gave Nevada all it could handle. Portland, picked 10th, won at Oregon State.
And let’s not forget No. 1ranked Gonzaga, which already has wins against No. 3 Iowa, No. 5 Kansas and No. 8 West Virginia.
“Pepperdine was very good when we played them,” SDSU coach Brian Dutcher said. “And we know what BYU is. They’re really good. I mean, this is a team that beat Gonzaga to end their year last year. We know how good they are. Saint Mary’s is going to be good, too. … We know we’ll have to be ready for Tuesday.”
The WCC has more meaningful wins than its western brethren but it also has had more chances, and that might be the most important takeaway. After Gonzaga nearly bolted the WCC for the Mountain West in 2018, part of its agreement to stay involved scheduling concessions.
Most notable was a 16game conference schedule instead of the 20 that other leagues are trending toward, providing more opportunities to boost its metrics and national profile in November and December. Combine
that with financial incentives to avoid road “buy” games simply for the paycheck and find quality opponents at home or neutral courts.
The Mountain West is headed in the opposite direction, expanding from 18 to 20 games on an emergency basis in 2020-21 and probably for good in 2021-22. In normal years, that’s four fewer nonconference games per team, or 44 total.
The difference is more pronounced this season with the delayed start and condensed schedules. The NCAA allows 27 regular-season games (instead of the usual 31), which leaves you with seven if you play a 20game league schedule. The WCC can play 11.
More nonconference opportunities, if used judiciously, can mean better metrics. And better metrics can mean more NCAA Tournament berths.
2. An offensive identity
Amid the carnage of missed shots, in the ashes of another 20-point half, was a glint of hope for an Aztecs team desperately seeking an offensive identity.
Trailing by 15, here’s what their opening four halfcourt possessions of the second half looked like:
Feed Matt Mitchell on the left block, dribbles into the lane for a short jumper. Two points.
Feed Mitchell on the right block, gets double teamed, fires a cross-court pass to Trey Pulliam, who swings to Aguek Arop, who drives against the scrambling defense for a short jump hook. Two points.
Feed Mitchell on the right block, dribbles into the lane, short jumper. Two points.
Feed Mitchell on the left side, drives baseline, draws a foul and two free throws. Two points.
Last season’s go-to sequence was simple: Get Malachi Flynn the ball, have Yanni Wetzell set a screen, get out of the way. But these Aztecs haven’t shown nearly the same efficiency on ball screens, or with straight motion, or with set plays.
Running the offense through Mitchell in the post may be the answer, much as it was in years when the Aztecs didn’t have guards who could create for themselves and others. They did it with JJ O’brien. They did it with Winston Shepard.
It forces the defense to make a decision. Mitchell is a willing passer and will find the open teammate if he gets double-teamed, creating a 4on-3 situation with shooters like Jordan Schakel and Terrell Gomez spaced across the perimeter. If the defense plays him straight up, as BYU did most of the game, he goes one-on-one. Put a bigger guy on him, as BYU also tried, and he’ll take you to the perimeter.
Mitchell nodded when asked if we might see more of this.
“I feel like,” he said, “I have a mismatch more or less every night.”
3. Career highs, and lows
The hardest thing to do in sports is anything, when it’s expected. And in that respect, the Aztecs probably should have known what was coming Friday.
Schakel and Nathan Mensah both had career highs in scoring last week at then-no. 23 Arizona State. Schakel’s 25 points were his most in 98 career games, Mensah’s 17 his best in 52.
Together they made 16 of 27 shots.
Against BYU: three and eight points. Schakel missed his first six shots, didn’t score until 9:29 to go and finished 1 of 9. Mensah had three more fouls than baskets.
It’s a shocking reversal and one that was hugely impactful in Friday’s result. And one that, if history or psychology is a guide, was not hugely unexpected. Just when you think things come easily in this game, they don’t.
Consider: Entering Friday, SDSU’S scholarship players (not counting the freshmen) went from 16.0 points and 71.8 percent on their career nights with the Aztecs … to 4.1 points and 33.3 percent in the next Division I game.
Schakel’s previous career best was 19 points on 7 of 9 shooting at BYU last year; he had five against Grand Canyon four days later.
Mensah’s was 16 points on 7 of 7 shooting against New Mexico in 2019; he had four against Fresno State a week later.
Trey Pulliam? Same thing. Eighteen points on 6 of 6 shooting at UNLV last season to five points at New Mexico three days later. It would take eight games to score his next 18 points.
The news is slightly more optimistic with Mitchell. His previous career high was 31 against Eastern Illinois as a freshman, which dropped to 11 in the next game. But he did manage double-figure scoring in four straight games and seven of eight after the 31. His high game last year was 28 against Utah State, and he had 16 and 22 in the next two games.
So there’s hope.
mark.zeigler@sduniontribune.com