AFC championship

Bills at Chiefs

Line: Chiefs by 3

First meeting: In Week 6 in Buffalo, the Chiefs won, 26-17, with Patrick Mahomes throwing two touchdown passes to Travis Kelce. Kansas City won the time-of-possession battle by 15 minutes.

Bills keys: Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perfectly comfortable letting Josh Allen throw on just about every down, and foul weather doesn’t scare them. … Get slot receiver Cole Beasley more involved. … This will be a game of “Our guy’s more durable than your guy,” especially with Mahomes coming off a concussion. … Defensively, take advantage of the fact the Chiefs aren’t going to want Mahomes to run. … Keep everything in front of you, and don’t let Tyreek Hill beat you. If it’s somebody else, so be it.

Chiefs keys: If the Chiefs play their game, generating offense won’t be a problem. Falling behind doesn’t rattle them, either, judging by the way Mahomes led those comebacks in the 2019 postseason. … The key will be slowing Allen, who’s dangerous with his arm and legs. Try to keep the Buffalo quarterback in the pocket, make him throw on schedule, and don’t let him escape to his right. If he rolls out, try to make it away from his throwing arm.

Sam Farmer’s pick: There could be a combined 100 passing attempts in this game. The Chiefs have a ton of offensive weapons and can score in bunches, but the injuries to Mahomes are a real concern. Not just the concussion but the turf toe. Allen is playing like a young John Elway, and having Stefon Diggs and John Brown allows the Bills to stretch the field vertically. Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been fantastic. Bills 33, Chiefs 31