San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
PRELLER LEARNED FROM ’15 REBUILD
Trading for aging veterans like Kemp, Upton didn’t pan out
The first try was made by a young general manager new in his role with a new staff, not much guidance, not entirely familiar with what he had and driven by a voracious appetite to create something better.
All those circumstances, save for the last one, are different now.
If only because such attempts at improvement have failed before and there is no World Series trophy in the team’s lobby, it is fair to wonder if the Padres’ splurge on new players this offseason will end up failing. Even miserably.
Like 2015, when first-time general manager A.J. Preller added a slew of aging veterans in a binge that earned him the short-lived “Rock Star GM” moniker.
But this time, say those in the organization, as well as the circumstances, is something else altogether.
“The biggest thing to me is I know when I walked into the clubhouse in 2015, I walked into a team that had streaks of losing seasons,”
said right fielder Wil Myers, who was acquired in the ’14-15 splurge and is the only Padres player remaining from that time. “I didn’t walk into a team that had guys getting MVP votes and that was really making a run. … This is a year we’re adding a lot of players like we were in ’15 but we’re adding them to an already winning team. That’s the biggest difference for me.”
That contrast alone should perhaps be enough to quell any significant concern about this spending spree imploding on Preller and Padres Chairman Peter Seidler.
The team in 2020 made its first playoff appearance in 14 years and won its first postseason series in 22 years. It added three starting pitchers in the offseason, including one who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2018 and another who finished second in the NL last season. The left side of the infield is comprised of 27-year-old third baseman Manny Machado, who finished third in NL MVP voting last season, and 22-year-old shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who finished fourth.
“The talent is much better in 2021 than it was in 2015,” Myers said.
But for further assurance to those accustomed to a franchise that has most often found a way to be awful, there is a compelling story told by those who were around in 2015 of how Preller and the Padres rose from the ashes of that dumpster fire.
“He’s done a good job learning from his mistakes,” said one member of the Padres front office.
Most members of the organization who spoke about the evolution of Preller and the team over the past six years (some responding to queries in recent weeks and some having painted a picture of the front office evolution in conversations over the past couple of years) did so with the promise of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about this subject.
“I definitely learned a lot,” Preller said recently, following a chuckle. “I think we constantly are looking back at all the moves over the last five or six years; the biggest thing is to self-evaluate. Our game plan in 2015, what we were trying to do philosophically made some sense.”
Preller was hired in early August of 2014. He was taking over direction of a team that was about to finish a 77-85 campaign, the franchise’s fourth consecutive season with a losing record and its eighth straight season without going to the playoffs.
In his assessment of the roster, the strength was the starting pitching trio of Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy. They were a decent core, but they weren’t garnering the kind of interest from other teams Preller thought was necessary to really help turn things around.
“There, we were trying to take advantage of three starters that were a year or two way from free agency that didn’t quite have trade value we were looking for,” Preller said. “We were seeing if we could take a medium step or short-term step and try to take advantage of those starters.”
Not ready
Preller brought over a few people from the Texas Rangers, where he had worked in the front office for the previous decade, and he reunited with some former colleagues and mentors. But he hardly knew his staff, especially the scouts on whom he needed to rely for player evaluations, and none of his new charges had ever worked for him with him as the boss.
This is what Preller said before the winter meetings in San Diego in 2019, comparing them with the winter meetings in San Diego in 2014:
“In a lot of ways, the biggest (difference) is knowing our people well. That first year, no matter how quickly you try to speed up the learning curve, you can’t. … (One) thing I (remember) from those meetings is it was a time of getting to know people, the staff. The Winter Meetings are a good time for that. Everybody is in one area. You take advantage of that time. Getting to a new organization, for me personally, it felt like 24 hours in a day wasn’t enough.”
Yet it was at that ’14 gathering that the new general manager and his new staff laid the groundwork for a slew of trades that shocked the league and fired up the long-suffering Padres faithful.
Those moves included trading for Matt Kemp, Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris and Craig Kimbrel. The Padres also signed free agent pitcher James Shields. In doing so, the franchise committed an additional $50 million or so to its 2015 payroll and parted with, among others, catcher Yasmani Grandal and shortstop Trea Turner, who instantly became the Nationals second-ranked prospect and by the middle of 2016 was starting for them virtually every day.
The excitement in San Diego was immeasurable. Finally, the team was going for it in a way previous ownership had not allowed.
The fervor lasted about a month into the season.
The Padres won six of seven to get to 10-5 on April 21. They were 11-11 exactly a week later and would spend just 13 more days above .500, the last time on June 8 (30-29). Manager Bud Black was fired on June 15 with the team at 32-33. The team finished 74-88, three games worse than in 2014.
Kemp was 31 and playing on an arthritic hip. Shields was 33 and had abundant mileage on his arm.
Black, according to multiple people, had never been all that enamored with the moves. He was proved right.
Some of the new players turned out to not be receptive to the instruction they received. Behavior on road trips was an issue with a few. The mood in the clubhouse grew worse as losses mounted.
“It comes down to getting the right guys,” Preller said recently. “That 2015 group wasn’t quite the right people in the building, in the locker room. (In ensuing deals), you try to dig in on makeup, personality, chemistry. The team last year really vibed, had a great feel. When we made these moves (this offseason) we wanted to make sure we maintained that, complemented that group and have a similar vibe.”
Preller and his lieutenants had not had (or taken) the time to vet their trades in a way they would come to for later endeavors.
Preller also has acknowledged he was too eager in some of the trades. In hindsight, the Padres believe Kemp, for instance, could have brought with him a greater return and/ or cost less. The Dodgers really wanted Grandal.
Preller holding out for more and refusing to part with top prospects in subsequent dealings, those in the know say, is a remnant of his early lessons.
And with time — which has allowed for trust in a staff that has been together for several years — Preller does far more investigation on potential acquisitions. Most of the players he got in the trade orgy last August (nine players in three days) were guys he and his staff had been discussing at length for weeks, months or years.
“He has a great gut, but now he validates it more than he did,” said one observer.
Another factor was the increased involvement of Ron Fowler, who is now the team’s vice chairman but sold a portion of his stake to Seidler and ceded control of the club in November. (Fowler declined to talk for this article out of deference to Seidler.)
In 2015, Fowler was far less involved in the day-to-day operation of the team. His focus was on getting the Padres’ finances in order, catching up on Petco Park maintenance and enhancement. And he was frequently in New York working on league business, as the daily operation was largely left to then-president Mike Dee.
Preller has often credited Fowler, who became far more involved after Dee was fired in October of 2016, with aiding his growth in understanding of business and deal-making.
Building anew
The 2015 foray had the makings of a categorical disaster.
But Preller wasn’t entirely naive. Even then, he and others in the organization were hinting at it being a temporary fix, if it worked at all. They indicated at a loose exit strategy.
Preller had in his interviews with Padres ownership before he was hired outlined his plans to use the international free agent market. And in the summer of 2016 that is what the Padres did — in a way that hadn’t been done before. They committed nearly $80 million, half to sign teenagers from Latin America and half in penalties for going over the allowable expenditure.
Simultaneously, Preller was selling off the veterans acquired a little more than a year earlier (and other veterans).
Among the deals: He got Tatis by sending Shields and $31 million to the White Sox. He got Chris Paddack from the Marlins for Fernando Rodney. He got Josh Naylor as part of a deal that sent Cashner to the Marlins. Later that year, he acquired Manuel Margot and three other players for Kimbrel.
Naylor is no longer here, but he was part of the package that landed Mike Clevinger at the trade deadline last August. Margot was traded last February for reliever Emilio Pagan, who may well be the Padres’ primary closer this season. Many other pieces garnered in the period from 2015 to ’16 have been parlayed into veteran players.
“Probably the biggest thing is what our scouts and group have done the last four or five years in terms of building a foundation,” Preller said.
Really, when comparing 2015 and ’21, it is about more than their differences. The takeaway is about their connection.
In a way — or in nearly every way — what the Padres have put together now couldn’t have been done without what they did then.
“Absolutely,” Seidler said. “It wasn’t working, and we shifted quickly. … All of this comes together and makes great sense out of our past and future. It’s ever evolving. We do have a strategy. Like every good business, we tinker with that strategy from year to year, but inside our organization we are completely confident in what we’re doing, while at the same time challenging every little step.”