U.S. EXPERTS: RUSSIA COULD SEIZE UKRAINE CAPITAL IN 2 DAYS IN ATTACK

Assessments estimate civilian deaths could hit 50K across nation

Russia is close to completing preparations for what appears to be a large-scale invasion of Ukraine that could result in up to 50,000 civilian deaths, decapitate the government in Kyiv within two days, and launch a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees fleeing the resulting chaos, according to updated U.S. military and intelligence assessments briefed to lawmakers and European partners over the past several days.

The rising concerns come as the Russian military continues to dispatch combat units to the Ukrainian border in both its own territory and Belarus. As of Friday, seven people familiar with the assessments said, there were 83 Russian battalion tactical groups, with about 750 troops each, arrayed for a possible assault. That is up from 60 two weeks ago, and comprises about 70 percent of what Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to have in place if he wants to maximize the operation.

Those more than 62,000 troops are backed by tens of thousands of additional personnel to provide logistics, air power and medical support. U.S. officials have said the Russian presence along Ukraine’s borders totals more than 100,000; one Western security official put the number at 130,000.

Russia has long bristled over Ukrainian independence. Ukraine was part of the now-defunct Soviet Union, and parts of its territory for centuries were ruled by Russia. Ukraine also aspires to NATO membership, which Putin adamantly rejects.

Key military enablers, including bridge-building units, have continued to arrive on the border, and more battalion tactical groups are now in transit, with only a few in far-flung locations, such as the Arctic, remaining at their home bases. As a result, U.S. officials initially skeptical last fall that a largescale invasion would be launched appear now to have shifted their thinking as the buildup continues, a congressional aide said.

The assessments, the people familiar with them confirmed, also judged that the window for a diplomatic resolution of the crisis appears to be closing. Even as a steady stream of European leaders have been in contact with Putin, further meetings have been scheduled, and the Kremlin has repeatedly denied any invasion plans, the number and configuration of troop movements have continued to push the West’s consensus in the opposite direction.

“Our worry would be that you don’t park battle groups ... on the border of another country twice and do nothing,” one European official said, referring to an earlier buildup last year.