California’s Democratic leaders slide in opinion polls

These are grim times for Democrats in California.

Usually, such a notion would seem a disconnect in one of the bluest states in the nation.

But public opinion among Californians has soured on state and national Democratic leaders, some of whom were riding high not so long ago, according to a recent poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. A majority of voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction.

There’s growing anger over worsening and seemingly intractable homelessness, fear about increasing crime, and signs that various policies aren’t working, including a once-vaunted program to combat climate change.

Democrats have benefited from a shrinking Republican Party that had been unable or unwilling to adapt to California’s demographic and political changes over the decades. In recent years, however, there have been signs Democrats are misreading, or ignoring, where the California body politic is at.

Does this mean Republicans have a chance to wrest control of the state from Democrats in November? Hardly. Does it mean they can prevail in congressional districts that could help flip the House of Representatives to Republican control and win their first statewide constitutional office in 16 years? A definite maybe.

Republican voter registration may still be dismal, but in 2020 the GOP position prevailed on several ballot measures involving property taxes, rent control, criminal justice, affirmative action and the gig economy.

Projecting with certainty the state’s political direction would be foolhardy, given how quickly fortunes can change. Gov. Gavin Newsom crushed a recall attempt just last September, 62 percent to 38 per

cent.

In that same month, however, the Berkeley IGS Poll showed him with a job approval rating of 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. The poll this month had it at 48 percent to 47 percent. Newsom’s approval was slightly higher in San Diego County, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Newsom fared worse on how voters viewed his handling of several issues. The most damning was homelessness, where 66 percent said he was doing a “poor” or “very poor” job. That may be a rating for the governor, but you can bet Democratic mayors throughout the state are looking at that closely.

On crime, 51 percent disapproved of the job he was doing, compared with 20 percent who rated him excellent or good.

Further, by a 2-1 ratio, voters want to change a 2014 voter-approved ballot measure to increase felony prosecutions for certain crimes. Proposition 47 reduced penalties for property crimes like shoplifting of goods valued up to $950 from felonies to misdemeanors.

Newsom had higher ratios of negative to positive job marks on water policies/ drought, education/schools, managing budget surplus, wildfire threat, health care and jobs/economy. On some of these issues, a substantial percentage of voters give him a “fair” evaluation.

He received more positive voter reviews for his work on the coronavirus pandemic and climate change.

A key California climate policy appears to be in trouble, however. The effectiveness of the state’s “capand-trade” emissions program has come into doubt. An advisory panel recently issued a report saying companies that must pay to emit greenhouse gases in California have saved up so many credits allowing them to pollute that “it may jeopardize the state’s ability to reach its ambitious climate goals,” according to the Associated Press.

Despite all this, Newsom’s re-election probably isn’t in much jeopardy, though it may not turn out to be as easy as everyone seemed to think in September. Right now he’s not facing much competition and has a reported $25 million in his campaign fund.

Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle has announced his candidacy, though he’s little known outside of his district in far northeastern California. Entrepreneur and recall candidate Anthony Trimino also says he’s running. Meanwhile, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who ran as a recall replacement candidate, remains noncommittal about whether he will take on Newsom.

Whether the GOP can field a candidate who could legitimately challenge the incumbent, or at least run a credible campaign that might help down-ballot

Republicans, remains to be seen. Also, Republicans could be stuck again with a candidate who could actually hurt them.

Newsom thwarted the recall in a blowout in large part because his leading opponent was Larry Elder, a radio talk show host whose conservative views were out of step with the majority of California voters. Elder became the issue. Before he got in, Newsom was the issue and polls then suggested the recall could be close. Elder said he’s not running this time around, but there likely are potential candidates with similar positions.

The recent Berkeley IGS Poll shows Newsom isn’t the only Democrat in the doldrums. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator, have experienced precipitous declines in job approval ratings among California voters, 12 percent and 11 percent, respectively, since a poll in July. (Harris was about 10 points lower than Biden in both polls.)

Meanwhile, Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s job-approval rating is at an all-time low — 30 percent. The 88-yearold senator’s polling numbers have been in decline in recent years as she has fallen out of favor with increasing numbers of Democrats, particularly within the party’s dominant progressive wing. In the San Francisco Bay Area, her home base, Feinstein’s approval rating is only slightly better, at 35 percent.

Feinstein played a peculiar role in the internecine Democratic battle that resulted in the recall of three San Francisco school board members.

Recall advocates, which included Mayor London Breed, said the members had misplaced priorities by trying remove names of people they found objectionable from dozens of schools, when the board should have been more focused on reopening schools shuttered during the coronavirus pandemic.

The schools were named after, among others, Presidents George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, and Feinstein. The board members noted that Washington owned slaves, Lincoln oversaw widespread killings of Native Americans and Feinstein had replaced a Confederate flag that had been vandalized at City Hall with a new one when she was mayor in 1984.

The effort caused an uproar and led to national ridicule. Commentators across the nation last week called the recall a warning shot for progressives.

But that wasn’t the first hint of trouble for California Democrats. They’ve been skating on thin ice in recent years, and it’s starting to crack.

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