U.S., ALLIES WEIGH HOW TO SECURE UKRAINE LEADERS

Say a clear line of succession needed if Zelenskyy falls

Allied governments have been discussing how to secure the line of succession in Ukraine in the event that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is captured or killed by Russian forces, according to officials from multiple governments.

The concerns are primarily about making sure there is still an independent Ukrainian government in some form, even if Russia finds a way to install a puppet leadership in Kyiv, the capital. Having an independent leader to recognize, Western officials said, will help prevent any Russianbacked leaders from gaining legitimacy.

Zelenskyy’s presence and motivational speeches have been key factors in keeping up the morale of the Ukrainian military and people, and the officials said it was important that continued.

The focus on securing succession comes, in part, because the Ukrainian Constitution is unclear on the issue and because Zelenskyy has said he does not want to be evacuated. He memorably said, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Despite news reports, U.S. officials deny that they ever offered to evacuate the president or advised him to leave. And Western governments have applauded his resolve to stay and fight as Russian troops try to advance across the country.

The United States, Britain and the European Union would not recognize a government set up by Russia. Nevertheless, undermining a Moscow-controlled government in Kyiv would be easier for the United States and its allies if there is a legally recognized leader of a free Ukraine, rather than competing politicians vying for that role.

Some practical and legal issues are at play as well. The EU and NATO countries have been largely making their military and economic donations public as a way to show support for Ukraine. European countries have sent automatic weapons, Stinger anti-aircraft weapons, various antitank missiles and protective equipment to demonstrate that allies are intent on bolstering Ukraine’s ability to damage Russian military forces.

Continuing such public support is far easier with a functional government to accept the aid, even if it is operating in western Ukraine or as a government-in-exile in Poland or Romania.

The United States has a long history of covertly providing arms to insurgent groups around the world. Such a program for Ukraine — which would require a formal but secret finding from President Joe Biden — remains a possibility. But the longer the organized military leads the fight against Russia, the more likely Ukraine will be able to keep control of all or part of the country.

The strong public signal of support should help strengthen Ukraine’s morale and demonstrate to Russia that the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian military was not going to stop, according to a person briefed on the discussion, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations with the Ukrainian government.

U.S. officials have pushed the Ukrainians to not allow senior officials in the line of succession to remain in the same place for long periods, and have also urged that they be moved to safer locations outside Kyiv, said a person briefed on the conversations.

U.S. and allied officials would like the Ukrainian government to set up a location for the leadership to use should Kyiv fall, according to multiple officials.

Under the Ukrainian Constitution, the speaker, or chair, of parliament would succeed Zelenskyy as acting president. The speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk, is a prowestern politician and former top aide to Zelenskyy. On Monday, Stefanchuk was pictured with Zelenskyy signing Ukraine’s application for EU membership. And Friday, he participated in a virtual meeting with the president of the European Parliament.

U.S. and European officials said Stefanchuk and others in the line of succession were expected to continue to oppose the Russian invasion.

Ukrainian officials have resisted suggestions from U.S. and European officials to relocate Stefanchuk but have said that they understand the need to ensure a legal succession, according to two people briefed on the conversations.

For weeks before the invasion, the United States and Britain warned about Moscow’s desire to push Zelenskyy from power. They discussed how succession in Ukraine would work if they needed to counter a Russiabacked coup.

And despite the public rhetoric before the invasion that the United States was overstating the threat, Zelenskyy privately took the warning more seriously and realized the Russians were intent on capturing or killing him, according to U.S. officials.

“The importance of Zelenskyy’s personality under current circumstances is beyond doubt,” said Khrystyna Holynska, a Ukrainian who co-wrote a recent essay in The Hill newspaper about the succession issues. “If something happens to him, it would be very important to send a crystal-clear message about who is leading the country now, how the government will be run.”

Holynska, a researcher at the Rand Corp., said while it might not be wise for Ukraine to publicize plans to relocate the government, she hoped it was ready to operate in locations outside Kyiv.

Beyond Stefanchuk, the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, the line of succession is not entirely clear, Holynska said. When Zelenskyy and Stefanchuk became sick with COVID-19 in 2020, Ukrainian legal scholars said the prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, would be next in line to take over.

The Ukrainian Constitution creates the positions of first deputy and deputy chair to take over the duties of the parliament speaker, although it does not explicitly say they are in a line of presidential succession.

“People should know who’s next in line,” Holynska said. “Right now is very Zelenskyy-focused. He’s in the news, he’s everywhere. Losing this image of a leader will be not good for the resistance, for the will to fight, for the spirit in Ukraine.”