San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)

EXPERTS: CENTRAL U.S. NEEDS TO BE READY FOR NEXT EARTHQUAKE

Emergency officials working to increase residents’ awareness

- BY JIM SALTER Salter writes for The Associated Press.

Experts have warned for decades that a large swath of the central U.S. is at high risk for a devastatin­g earthquake. They know that overcoming complacenc­y is among their biggest hurdles.

Hundreds of emergency managers, transporta­tion leaders, geologists and others devoted to earthquake preparedne­ss gathered Thursday in St. Louis for the annual Missouri Earthquake Summit to discuss the latest informatio­n on risks, preparedne­ss strategies and recovery planning.

Large and devastatin­g earthquake­s in the U.S. are most commonly associated with the West Coast — for good reason since the worst quakes in recent years, including the massive 1989 quake in the San Francisco area that killed 63 people and injured nearly 3,800 — have mostly been in the West.

But the New Madrid Fault Line centered near the southeast Missouri town of New Madrid produced three magnitude 7.5 to 7.7 earthquake­s that rang church bells as far away as South Carolina, caused farmland to sink into swamps and briefly caused the Mississipp­i River to flow backward.

Those quakes happened in late 1811 and early 1812. Though the fault line still produces about 200 small earthquake­s each year, people within the region have heard warnings for so long about the next Big One that, for many, it goes in one ear and out the other.

“Because it hasn’t happened, and with people’s busy everyday lives, it kind of falls into the background,” said Robbie Myers, emergency management director for Butler County, Mo., in the heart of the New Madrid zone.

The earthquake threat received the most attention more than three decades ago when climatolog­ist Iben Browning predicted a 50-50 chance of a big earthquake on a specific day — Dec. 3, 1990. His prediction drew scores of journalist­s and onlookers to New Madrid to see — nothing.

Still, experts believe there is a 7 percent to 10 percent chance of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years within the New Madrid zone, and a 25 percent to 40 percent chance of a smaller but still potentiall­y devastatin­g magnitude 6.0 quake. The Midwestern risk is “similar to the chances in California,” said Thomas Pratt, Central and Eastern U.S. coordinato­r for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Program.

In addition to thousands of deaths, bridges crossing the Mississipp­i River could fall, major highways including Interstate 55 could buckle, and oil and gas pipelines could break, causing nationwide disruption­s, experts said.

Matthew Clutter, a Federal Emergency Management Agency operationa­l planner, said a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in the New Madrid zone could displace nearly 850,000 people in up to eight states. With roads and bridges compromise­d, emergency aid might be cut off from the impacted areas due to road and bridge damage.

“If all eight states are affected, there’s going to be a fight for resources,” Clutter said.

Memphis, Tenn., is within the zone. St. Louis, Indianapol­is and Little Rock, Ark., are close enough for concern. All told, about 45 million people live within the area that would be most impacted.

Some communitie­s have been more proactive than others in their preparatio­ns.

Still, most homes and commercial buildings within the region aren’t earthquake ready.

“Many places in the region have no building codes, and very few of the existing building codes require earthquake-resistant design,” according to a fact sheet from the American Geoscience­s Institute.

Emergency managers from the city, county and state level say they’re trying to raise awareness with residents.

“We always encourage people to look at their insurance coverage, look at things like your utilities, if you have a hot water heater, making sure it’s strapped,“said Sarah Russell, commission­er of emergency management for St. Louis.

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