San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
HEAVY WEAPONS HEAD TO UKRAINE
NATO shifts its stance as Ukraine prepares for expected Russian offensive, long conflict
Slovakia’s decision to provide Ukraine with a Soviet-era S-300 air defense unit, a move made with the blessing of the United States, represents a new phase in the war, as allied countries look to help the Ukrainian military hold off an expected offensive from a newly concentrated Russian force and better prepare for a potentially long conflict.
In the early days of the invasion, NATO countries were quick to send shortrange, defensive weapons to take out tanks and aircraft, including Javelin, NLAW and Stinger missiles, which were light, portable, high-tech and easy to use with little training.
But now the allied governments have shown a willingness to send heavier weaponry more suited to the coming battle in Donbas, including tanks and longer-range defensive weapons such as the S-300s, a Russian-made surface-toair system used mainly to attack enemy aircraft.
“Our approach is evolving based on realities on the ground,” Margiris Abukevicius, Lithuania’s vice minister of defense, said this past week on a visit to Washington for diplomatic talks.
Western officials increasingly recognize that the war is likely to be a protracted conflict between two large armies, as neither side shows signs of wanting to give up the fight. That means that the kinds of arms Ukraine needs are changing. Kyiv’s commanders now need better air defense systems and longerrange weapons than they currently have to defend the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the country’s east.
So far, the Biden administration has not been willing to provide weapons that would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, although some experts say that damaging Russian military airfields would improve Ukraine’s chances of withstanding a renewed offensive.
The Biden administration did say last week it will work with U.S. allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has pleaded with the United States and its allies to send tanks and warplanes.
Ukrainian forces are best prepared to use Russian-designed systems of the kind that Warsaw Pact countries deployed in the Cold War. NATO countries in the alliance’s eastern flank still have stocks of those weapons and have said they are willing to give them to Ukraine if they are provided with newer replacements.
The Russian-designed S-300s are a good example. Slovakia’s prime minister said Friday that his country had provided the system to the Ukrainians, and the United States announced it would provide Patriot air defense systems to Slovakia, with other potential deployments to come. It remains unclear whether the S-300s have been delivered to the front lines yet.
The Ukrainians have the system in their inventory and already know how to use it. The S-300 will allow the Ukrainians to defend against several Russian aircraft attacking at once.
“This is additional capacity,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former top Army commander in Europe. “It’s a very accurate system.”
Another European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military planning, said Friday that NATO nations had not made final decisions on what more weapons to provide Ukraine. Allied war planners are working to assess the Ukrainian requirements in the near term — to hold off the coming Russian offensive — and over the longer term, since the war is likely to grind on for months or years.
The next few weeks are likely to prove to be a critical time in the war. European intelligence officials have said Putin is likely to try to achieve battlefield gains by May 9, when he is set to give a Victory Day speech to the Russian public, this year commemorating the Soviet victory in World War II and the military operation in Ukraine.