WILL CALIFORNIA CONTINUE TO SEE A POPULATION DECREASE?

ECONOMISTS

YES

California’s domestic migration has been negative nearly every year since 1992. Only because foreign migration and natural increase were enough had the state’s total population continued to increase. With the pandemic shutdown of 2020, births and foreign migration sharply plummeted, leaving the first annual decline in population over the state’s 170year history. With foreign migration now somewhat resuming, as birth rates remain low, and out-migration remains elevated, California’s net population will continue declining this year.

NO

Long-term trends suggest slowing population growth but not decline. Given recent shocks, population movements over the last couple of years are unlikely to persist. Still, California could do more to attract and retain businesses. States like Texas, which have been growing their populations and attracting businesses, have lower taxes and leaner and more transparent business regulations.

NO

I am not particularly concerned about net outmigration. The numbers are small, and our state has experienced this phenomenon previously, and then subsequently rebounded. I am not advocating complacency. Persons leaving have legitimate concerns that are not easily solved and must be addressed. Over the long run, our economy is resilient and inviting. Climate change will probably more negatively impact Texas and Florida and prove to be a net positive for California.

YES

California’s population shrank by 211,000 in 2022 and further declines can be expected. High home prices and taxes will continue to push people out of the state. There will also be a pull factor as exiting California companies take their employees with them. Net domestic out-migration will exceed the natural increase of births minus deaths and modest increases in foreign immigration. The ability to work remotely will facilitate this trend.

EXECUTIVES

YES

So long as our schools continue to rank near the bottom, our streets are lined with tent encampments, the costs of doing business escalate, and our housing is inaccessible to hard-working professionals and families, people will vote with their feet. They’ll move to where everything — taxes, energy, water, quality education — just costs less. Good weather and life’s pleasures in California don’t pay the bills, and while many things do grow on trees here, money sure doesn’t.

NO

Perhaps, in the short term, and if economic discrepancies continue to widen, we can expect small departures. Over longer periods, I believe the open and accepting culture, foreign immigration, quality higher education, and innovation and investment mecca producing new companies will attract people to California. That said, I am slightly concerned about the growing tax differences for both individuals and companies and wish states did not race to the bottom to incentivize moves.

YES

If we lose companies that are providing jobs it is bad and it is caused by our regulations, taxes, fees, increased crime and lack of housing. We will continue losing people until we attract them by offering fewer regulations for businesses, a tax rate that rewards hard work and productivity, and affordable housing. Then, we need to clean up our homelessness issue and arrest people for crimes that should be punishable. Result, net migration.

YES

California will continue losing residents as long as the cost of living — housing, energy costs and the highest taxes in the nation, etc. — continues to increase. States like Texas and Florida with lower taxes and costs will end up becoming the Golden States. I have physicians telling me they are leaving the state because of the high taxes and costs combined with the lowest Medi-cal reimbursement in the country. Even physicians can’t afford to stay here.

NELVIN C. CEPEDA U-T FILE California’s population shrank by 508,903 people during the first two years of the pandemic, second behind only New York. A half-million people leaving California, which has a population of more than 39 million, isn’t exactly a large-scale exodus — but it does have some policymakers concerned about the state’s future. Texas and Florida saw their populations increase during the same time period. Experts say the reasons for Californians leaving are high housing costs, congestion, crime and pollution. Some demographic experts have suggested much of the migration was the result of Californians “seeking safe refuge during the pandemic” and might not be a long-term phenomenon. Above, people gather at Mission Beach in July 2020.

Kelly Cunningham San Diego Institute for Economic Research

Caroline Freund UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy

Gary London London Moeder Advisors

Bob Rauch R.A. Rauch & Associates

Haney Hong San Diego County Taxpayers Assoc.

Austin Neudecker Weave Growth

Lynn Reaser economist

Chris Van Gorder Scripps Health