San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
THE PARIS AIR SHOW IS BACK, AND SO IS THE DASH FOR PLANE ORDERS
The global aviation industry descends on Paris once again this coming week following a four-year hiatus. At the Paris Air Show, airlines and leasing companies will place orders, manufacturers will show off civil and military aircraft, and executives will tout new technologies like flying taxis and electric propulsion as the industry pushes toward decarbonization.
Even before the event, which kicks off officially on Monday, carriers scrambled to replenish their order books as they brace for a robust post-pandemic recovery. Among the big-ticket purchases and commitments have been Ryanair, Air India and new Saudi airline Riyadh Air, which introduces its brand at the expo and might use the show to come back for more planes.
Stuart Hatcher, the chief economist at aviation consultant IBA, estimates that this year’s event might produce about 2,100 orders and commitments, with the likes of Air France-klm, Delta Air Lines or Malaysian Airlines considering deals.
With deliveries still hampered by strained supply chains, many customers want to lock in orders now to avoid being relegated to the end of the line. Airbus has said it’s sold out almost until the end of the decade for narrow-body jets, and Boeing also has few near-term delivery slots. It’s not just the smaller aircraft that are becoming harder to find, but also increasingly widebodies, flown on global routes that are more popular than ever after most countries dropped travel restrictions.
“These are not orders for the 2020s but for the 2030s,” Hatcher said in a preview of the show’s activity. “This time it feels like a race to grab market share in unproven markets based on long-term predictions that
have yet to show their full potential.”
The optimism is underpinned by recovery that the International Air Transport Association predicts will see global airlines earning a collective $9.8 billion in profit this year. That’s double its previous estimate from December as a surge in flying in North America and Europe drives up ticket prices.
At the last Paris Air Show in 2019, airlines and lessors agreed to buy as many as 866 planes, according to Flightglobal. Airbus had the upper hand at the event because Boeing’s Max model was grounded at the time following two deadly crashes.
Last year at the Farnborough expo in the U.K., which alternates with Paris as the biggest industry showcase, orders and commitments for aircraft reached 511 — only about a third of the almost 1,500 sold at the same show in 2018. Boeing secured the lion’s share of the haul, driven by the 737 Max, while Airbus garnered just 29 orders.
Following is a list of potential deals that might unfold in Paris, based on previously reported discussions and comments by executives.
Delta Air Lines is expected to place a big Airbus wide-body order as the carrier looks to restore POSTCOVID networks and replace older planes. Bloomberg News reported last month that Delta was in talks for both the A330neo and A350 twin-aisle jets with a potential order totaling dozens of planes.
Saudi Arabian startup carrier Riyadh Air is due to unveil its new livery and detail its launch plans at a gala tonight. The carrier has already ordered 39 Boeing 787 wide-body jets and is expected to seal orders for hundreds of narrow-body jets at or after the show.
Air France-klm could detail plans to replace its aging widebodies with more fuel-efficient jets. The carrier is shopping for replacements for some of its Airbus A330 and Boeing 777 jets that average 20 years old, with deliveries sought from 2025, Chief Executive Officer Ben Smith said in an interview this month.
Air Canada could seal a deal for as many as 20 Boeing 787 Dreamliners as it looks to renew and expand its long-haul fleet, Bloomberg News reported in May.
India’s Indigo could order 500 A320 series narrowbody jets as well as 25 widebody planes, Reuters reported this month. The carrier is the world’s largest operator of the type and already has a backlog of 500 A320s.
Japan’s two biggest airlines are in advanced talks to buy aircraft from Airbus and Boeing, Bloomberg News reported this month. Japan Airlines is working to secure single-aisle aircraft, including the A321neo, along with Boeing 787 widebodies, a deal for which could be announced at the show. ANA is looking to place orders for as many as 50 A321neo jets, but that deal may be delayed until after Paris.
Other carriers are also working to pin down deals, although those may not materialize at the show, including a record 600-plane order from Turkish Airlines and a follow-on order from Emirates, the world’s biggest long-haul carrier, for as many as 150 aircraft.