San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
Aztecs’ false start fortunate with Pac-12 flailing
Could it be the best thing that happened for San Diego State is that nothing happened at all?
Imagine if SDSU cut a $17 million check five weeks ago to leave the Mountain West for the Pac-12, only to come hat in hand at the MW’S door — perhaps joined on the porch by Oregon State and Washington State (with Stanford and Cal watching from the car?) — after Extinction Friday delivered the Pac-12’s demise.
Aztecs fans have dreamed on Pac-8/10/12 membership for more than half a century. Their pulses quickened in recent months when it seemed within their grasp.
This never was going to be the Pac of their dreams, however, because it wasn’t going to include UCLA and USC.
No matter. The frequent refrain from Aztecs fans: “We just have to get our foot in the door.”
What for?
That’s all well and good, until you dig deeper.
How meaningful is Power 5 membership at a time when the college athletics landscape is in the midst of unprecedented upheaval?
All parties concerned should be looking five, 10 or 20 years down the road, but it seems much of the Aztecs faithful was caught up in that historical/hysterical dream.
The Name, Image and Likeness rules and the transfer portal would have made a potential move to the Pac-whatever if not a fool’s errand, then at least not what everyone envisioned.
The extra money SDSU would have received from media rights — assuming the Pac-whatever was ever going to get a deal — likely would have been limited the first 3-4 years to a prorated share.
And that additional money would have been eaten up by higher coaches
salaries (Pac-12 football coaches and staffs make 2-3 times what their MW counterparts receive), along with expanded athletic staffing, facility upgrades and additional broadcast costs all associated with a Power 5 existence.
SDSU immediately would have been one of the Pac-whatever’s top men’s basketball programs. For now. How large would an underfunded NIL collective loom down the road?
Aztecs football is another story.
It has been seven years since SDSU won a conference championship. The challenge wouldn’t have gotten any easier competing against the likes of Oregon, Washington and Utah.
The long-held belief was that this would put SDSU on equal footing when it comes to recruiting fourand five-star players.
Sure enough, except NIL came along two years ago and unevened the playing field all over again. Just substitute dollar signs for stars: SDSU is not going to get four- and five-dollar sign players with its present NIL collective capabilities.
Utah was better prepared than SDSU in facilities and funding for a Power 5 move. The Utes still took a decade to win a conference championship, finishing with a losing conference record five out of the past 12 seasons.
It says here there would have been only two real benefits from joining the Pac-whatever — the ego boost of being a Power 5 school and the chance to bring some teams to town with more appeal than San Jose State or New Mexico or Wyoming.
About that ego boost ... Rutgers fans get to puff out their chests as members of the Big Ten — and then hang their heads after taking their weekly beating.
Scarlet Knights football teams are 13-66 in Big Ten play since joining the conference nine years ago. They’ve never gone better than 3-6 in conference play. They’ve gone 0-9 three times.
SDSU couldn’t sell out 35,000-capacity Snapdragon Stadium coming off a 12-2 season. What would attendance be after going 4-8 or 3-9?
Back to Rutgers. It’s raking in all that Big Ten cash — and still can’t balance the books.
The Rutgers athletic department is among the majority of those that are losing money.
According to bestcolleges.com, only 25 Division I schools turned a profit during the 2019-20 school year. All of them were Power 5 schools.
The median profit: $7.9 million.
There are 65 Power 5 schools, and 40 of them lost money.
The median loss: $15.9 million.
College athletic departments aren’t much different than most U.S. households, spending as much as — or more than — they take in each year.
The financial picture for the 64 Group of 5 schools is even worse.
None of them made a profit.
The median loss: $23 million.
SDSU for decades has relied on student fees to even come close to balancing its books.
Now to the upside of remaining in the Mountain West.
For starters, there’s that $17 million exit fee that was saved.
Then there’s this: Could SDSU have a better chance to make the college football playoff when it expands to 12 teams next year?
The playoff will include the six conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee along with six at-large teams.
It was presumed that the
ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC would claim five of the conference champion spots, with the non-autonomous conferences (AAC, Conference-usa, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt) competing for that sixth slot.
With the Pac-whatever’s demise, there are only four autonomous conferences, and suddenly the nonautonomous conferences are staring at two slots.
The Mountain West is positioned to be the strongest non-autonomous conference now after three of the AAC’S top programs — Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — left this year for the Big 12.
That’s big. So big, in fact, that don’t be surprised if NCAA power brokers go back and figure out a way to limit non-autonomous access to the playoff.
This is, as you know, all rigged.
Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde called what has transpired with realignment in general — and this week’s events in particular — “catastrophic” for college football.
He’s not wrong. For decades, the game thrived with conference regionalization and the rivalries that came with it.
So much for that. There was a time when joining the Power 5 ranks was a worthy ambition for which to aspire.
So much for that, too. SDSU’S leadership should take this opportunity to reassess where college athletics is headed and where the Aztecs fit in that future.
Focus on the reality of the situation, not the dream.
If it helps, borrow Mike Damone’s advice from the movie “Fast Times at Ridgemont High.”
“Act like where you are,” he said, “that’s the place to be.”